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La Relación Inflación-Crecimiento: Un Resúmen con algunas Implicaciones para Colombia

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  • Zeinab Partow
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    Abstract

    ¿Cuál es la relación entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico? En la tradición keynesiana, la curva de Phillips normal plantea que un alta inflación se relaciona con una reducción del desempleo y un aumento de la actividad productiva, equivaliendo ambos a mayor crecimiento económico. Tobin (1965) y Mundell (1965) también arguyen que existe una relación positiva entre la inflación y el producto. Por otra parte, los primeros modelos de expectativas racionales de Lucas (1972, 1973) y Barro (1976, 1980) y el trabajo de Sidrauski (1967) no predicen relación alguna entre el crecimiento anticipado del dinero del producto. Modelos más recientes demuestran que un alto crecimiento del dinero puede tener un efecto negativo sobre el crecimiento económico. Este trabajo está dirigido a lectores que buscan una introducción al tema de la inflación y su relación con el crecimiento económico. Por lo tanto se resume la literatura teórica y empírica sobre el tema en la sección a continuación, y se aumenta la evidencia empiríca en la sección III con los resultados de regresiones de corte trsversal para noventa y cinco países en el período 1960-1989. La cuarta sección preesenta los antecedentes macroeconómicos para Colombia con énfasis en la relación entre la inflación y el crecimiento, segida en la última sección de unas conclusiones para el país recogidas del análisis de corte transversal y de estudios recientes de series de tiempo.

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    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 023.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:023

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    1. Easterly, William, 1991. "The macroeconomics of the public sector deficit : the case of Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 626, The World Bank.
    2. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
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    7. Andrew J. Buck & Felix Fitzroy, 1988. "Inflation and Productivity Growth in the Federal Republic of Germany," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 10(3), pages 428-444, April.
    8. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 1993. "Growth and the Effects of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Sergio Rebelo, 1999. "Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2114, David K. Levine.
    10. De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "Economic growth in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 59-84, July.
    11. Easterly, William & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1991. "The macroeconomics of public sector deficits : a synthesis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 775, The World Bank.
    12. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1993. "Looking at the facts : what we know about policy and growth from cross-country analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1115, The World Bank.
    13. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
    14. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
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