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Portfolio Investment Response to U.S. Monetary Policy Announcements: An Event Study Analysis Using High Frequency Data from Mexico

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  • Hernández Vega Marco A.

Abstract

We study how unconventional monetary policy announcements affect the entry of foreign investment in debt and equity in Mexico, placing special focus on announcements related to the third QE program and the taper tantrum episode. A novel dataset on daily debt and equity flows, that maps Balance of Payments data quite well, allows this paper to provide a better insight into movements of capital. The results suggest that both equity and debt flows appear to react immediately to unexpected U.S. monetary policy announcements, in particular if these are considered as bad news by investors. In turn, results using weekly data support the idea that investors interested in fixed income instruments move more prudently than those interested in equity who react quickly.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernández Vega Marco A., 2017. "Portfolio Investment Response to U.S. Monetary Policy Announcements: An Event Study Analysis Using High Frequency Data from Mexico," Working Papers 2017-02, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2017-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
    2. Bowman, David & Londono, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio, 2015. "U.S. unconventional monetary policy and transmission to emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 27-59.
    3. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Hannah Shell, 2014. "The Rising Complexity of the FOMC Statement," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 23.
    4. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 48-65, September.
    5. Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland & Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "A global monetary tsunami? On the spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," CEPR Discussion Papers 9195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    7. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2018. "On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 330-377, February.
    8. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Mr. Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2014. "Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets: Different This Time?," IMF Working Papers 2014/240, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "Modelling the time varying determinants of portfolio flows to emerging markets," Working Paper Series 1468, European Central Bank.
    10. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Staff Working Papers 14-53, Bank of Canada.
    11. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket & Stocker, Marc, 2014. "Tinker, taper, QE, bye ? the effect of quantitative easing on financial flows to developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6820, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hernández Vega Marco A., 2018. "Does Monetary Policy in Advanced Economies Have Differentiated Effects on Portfolio Flows to Emerging Economies?," Working Papers 2018-27, Banco de México.
    2. Hernández Vega Marco A., 2021. "The Nonlinear Effect of Uncertainty in Portfolio Flows to Mexico," Working Papers 2021-11, Banco de México.
    3. Alba Carlos & Cuadra Gabriel & Hernández Juan R. & Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "Capital Flows to Emerging Economies and Global Risk Aversion during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 2021-17, Banco de México.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy Announcements; Unconventional Monetary Policies; Foreign Portfolio Investment; Mexican Equity and Bond Market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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