Central banks' macroeconomic projections and learning
AbstractWe study the impact of the publication of central banks’ macroeconomic projections on the dynamic properties of an economy where (i) private agents have incomplete information and form their expectations using recursive learning algorithms; (ii) the short-term nominal interest rate is set as a linear function of the deviations of inflation and real output from their target level; and (iii) the central bank, ignoring the exact mechanism used by private agents to form expectations, assumes that it can be reasonably approximated by perfect rationality and releases macroeconomic projections consistent with this assumption. The set of macroeconomic projections released by the central bank crucially affects the results in terms of stability of the equilibrium and speed of convergence of the learning process. In particular, while the publication of inflation and output gap projections enlarges the set of interest rate rules associated with stable equilibria and helps agents to learn faster, the announcement of the interest rate path exerts the opposite effect. In the latter case, in order to stabilize expectations and to speed up the learning process the response of the policy instrument to inflation should be stronger than when there is no announcement.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 782.
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Monetary policy; Transparency; Interest rates; Learning; Speed of convergence;
Other versions of this item:
- Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2010. "Central bank’s macroeconomic projections and learning," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 72, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-12-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-12-18 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2010-12-18 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-12-18 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- George A. Kahn, 2007. "Communicating a policy path: the next frontier in central bank transparency?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 25-51.
- James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002.
"Learning about monetary policy rules,"
2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2009. "The Announcement of Monetary Policy Intentions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 720, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2007.
"Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization,"
NBER Working Papers
13259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 235-71, July.
- Eusepi, Stefano & Preston, Bruce, 2007. "Central bank communication and expectations stabilization," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue March, pages 1-43.
- Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2007. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," Discussion Papers 0708-10, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
- Michael Woodford, 2005.
"Central bank communication and policy effectiveness,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
- Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 11898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central-bank communication and policy effectiveness," Discussion Papers 0506-07, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006.
"Revealing the secrets of the temple: the value of publishing central bank interest rate projections,"
Working Paper Series
2006-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2008. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 247-289 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," NBER Working Papers 12638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011.
"Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics and Finance,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8340, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a rational foundation for macroeconomics and finance," Research Discussion Papers 8/2011, Bank of Finland.
- Alberto Locarno, 2012. "Monetary policy in a model with misspecified, heterogeneous and ever-changing expectations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 888, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 102, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.