IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_1021_15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Decomposing euro area sovereign spreads: credit, liquidity and convenience

Author

Listed:
  • Marcello Pericoli

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Marco Taboga

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We conduct an empirical analysis of sovereign bond spreads for a selected number of euro area countries. We analyze several methodologies to measure and to assess the relative importance of three components of sovereign spreads: credit premia, liquidity premia and convenience yields. We find that, except for Germany, credit premia explain the bulk of the level and variability in sovereign spreads, while liquidity premia and convenience yields seem to play a limited role, although they are in several cases statistically significant and they can become economically relevant during short episodes of illiquidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2015. "Decomposing euro area sovereign spreads: credit, liquidity and convenience," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1021, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1021_15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1021/en_tema_1021.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    2. Dion Bongaerts & Frank De Jong & Joost Driessen, 2011. "Derivative Pricing with Liquidity Risk: Theory and Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 203-240, February.
    3. Vincent Reinhart & Brian Sack, 2002. "The changing information content of market interest rates," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    4. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    5. Marco Taboga, 2014. "What Is a Prime Bank? A Euribor–OIS Spread Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 51-75, March.
    6. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
    7. Ejsing, Jacob & Grothe, Magdalena & Grothe, Oliver, 2012. "Liquidity and credit risk premia in government bond yields," Working Paper Series 1440, European Central Bank.
    8. Nicolas Papageorgiou & Frank S. Skinner, 2006. "Credit Spreads And The Zero‐Coupon Treasury Spot Curve," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 421-439, September.
    9. Stefan Nagel, 2012. "Evaporating Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2005-2039.
    10. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & René Garcia, 2012. "Bond Liquidity Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1207-1254.
    11. Stefan Klößner & Sven Wagner, 2014. "Exploring All Var Orderings For Calculating Spillovers? Yes, We Can!—A Note On Diebold And Yilmaz (2009)," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 172-179, January.
    12. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    13. Jean-Luc Vila & Dimitri Vayanos, 1999. "Equilibrium interest rate and liquidity premium with transaction costs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 13(3), pages 509-539.
    14. Badaoui, Saad & Cathcart, Lara & El-Jahel, Lina, 2013. "Do sovereign credit default swaps represent a clean measure of sovereign default risk? A factor model approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2392-2407.
    15. Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Ravit E. Mandell, 2006. "The Market Price of Risk in Interest Rate Swaps: The Roles of Default and Liquidity Risks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2337-2360, September.
    16. Duffie, Darrell & Garleanu, Nicolae & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2002. "Securities lending, shorting, and pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 307-339.
    17. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    18. Darrell Duffie, 2012. "Over-The-Counter Markets," Introductory Chapters, in: Dark Markets: Asset Pricing and Information Transmission in Over-the-Counter Markets, Princeton University Press.
    19. Lee, Kuan-Hui, 2011. "The world price of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 136-161, January.
    20. De Socio, Antonio, 2013. "The interbank market after the financial turmoil: Squeezing liquidity in a “lemons market” or asking liquidity “on tap”," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1340-1358.
    21. Livingston, Miles B & Jain, Suresh K, 1982. "Flattening of Bond Yield Curves for Long Maturities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 157-167, March.
    22. Vincent Reinhart & Brian Sack, 2002. "The changing information content of market interest rates," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 340-357, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Arora, Navneet & Gandhi, Priyank & Longstaff, Francis A., 2012. "Counterparty credit risk and the credit default swap market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 280-293.
    24. Rien J. L. M. Wagenvoort & Sanne Zwart, 2014. "Uncovering The Common Risk‐Free Rate In The European Monetary Union," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 394-414, April.
    25. Banerjee, Snehal & Graveline, Jeremy J., 2014. "Trading in derivatives when the underlying is scarce," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 589-608.
    26. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    27. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
    28. Bong‐Gyu Jang & Hyeng Keun Koo & Hong Liu & Mark Loewenstein, 2007. "Liquidity Premia and Transaction Costs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2329-2366, October.
    29. Bühler, Wolfgang & Trapp, Monika, 2009. "Time-varying credit risk and liquidity premia in bond and CDS markets," CFR Working Papers 09-13, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    30. Long Chen & David A. Lesmond & Jason Wei, 2007. "Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-149, February.
    31. Antonio Di Cesare & Giuseppe Grande & Michele Manna & Marco Taboga, 2012. "Recent estimates of sovereign risk premia for euro-area countries," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 128, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    32. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    33. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment‐Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
    34. Francesco Lippi & Andrea Nobili, 2012. "Oil And The Macroeconomy: A Quantitative Structural Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1059-1083, October.
    35. George M. Constantinides, 2005. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Transaction Costs," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 7, pages 207-227, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    36. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    37. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2014. "Decomposing Euro-Area Sovereign Spreads: Credit and Liquidity Risks," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(6), pages 2103-2151.
    38. Arce, Oscar & Mayordomo, Sergio & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Credit-risk valuation in the sovereign CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 124-145.
    39. Joseph A. Cherian & Eric Jacquier & Robert A. Jarrow, 2004. "A Model of the Convenience Yields in On-the-Run Treasuries," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 79-97, August.
    40. Buraschi, Andrea & Menini, Davide, 2002. "Liquidity risk and specialness," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 243-284, May.
    41. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    42. Huang, Ming, 2003. "Liquidity shocks and equilibrium liquidity premia," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 104-129, March.
    43. Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2008. "Decomposing swap spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 375-405, May.
    44. Jack Bao & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang, 2011. "The Illiquidity of Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 911-946, June.
    45. Frank de Jong & Joost Driessen, 2012. "Liquidity Risk Premia in Corporate Bond Markets," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 1-34.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Athanasios Orphanides, 2020. "The fiscal–monetary policy mix in the euro area: challenges at the zero lower bound," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(103), pages 461-517.
    2. Ludovit Odor & Pavol Povala, 2016. "Risk Premiums in Slovak Government Bonds," Discussion Papers Discussion Paper No. 3/20, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    3. Margherita Bottero & Stefano schiaffi, 2022. "Firm liquidity and the transmission of monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1378, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Giuseppe Ferrero & Michele Loberto & Marcello Miccoli, 2017. "The collateral channel of unconventional monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1119, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    2. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    3. Song Han & Hao Zhou, 2016. "Effects of Liquidity on the Non-Default Component of Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from Intraday Transactions Data," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-49, September.
    4. Dimitri Vayanos & Jiang Wang, 2012. "Market Liquidity -- Theory and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 18251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Lafuente, Juan Angel & Serrano, Pedro, 2015. "On the compensation for illiquidity in sovereign credit markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 83-100.
    6. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    7. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2008. "Liquidity premia in dynamic bargaining markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 66-96, May.
    9. Jansen, Kristy, 2021. "Essays on institutional investors, portfolio choice, and asset prices," Other publications TiSEM fd998408-d282-4e0f-b542-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2011. "Credit and Liquidity Risks in Euro-area Sovereign Yield Curves," Working Papers 2011-26, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    11. Kim, Gi H. & Li, Haitao & Zhang, Weina, 2016. "CDS-bond basis and bond return predictability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 307-337.
    12. Ejsing, Jacob & Grothe, Magdalena & Grothe, Oliver, 2012. "Liquidity and credit risk premia in government bond yields," Working Paper Series 1440, European Central Bank.
    13. Patrick Augustin & Jan Schnitzler, 2021. "Disentangling types of liquidity and testing limits‐to‐arbitrage theories in the CDS–bond basis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 27(1), pages 120-146, January.
    14. Dick-Nielsen, Jens & Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2012. "Corporate bond liquidity before and after the onset of the subprime crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 471-492.
    15. Javadi, Siamak & Mollagholamali, Mohsen, 2018. "Debt market illiquidity and correlated default risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 266-273.
    16. Fecht, Falko & Füss, Roland & Rindler, Philipp B., 2014. "Corporate Transparency and Bond Liquidity," Working Papers on Finance 1404, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    17. Ejsing, Jacob & Grothe, Magdalena & Grothe, Oliver, 2015. "Liquidity and credit premia in the yields of highly-rated sovereign bonds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 160-173.
    18. Kurt F. Lewis & Francis A. Longstaff & Lubomir Petrasek, 2017. "Asset Mispricing," NBER Working Papers 23231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Arakelyan, Armen & Rubio, Gonzalo & Serrano, Pedro, 2015. "The reward for trading illiquid maturities in credit default swap markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 376-389.
    20. Kim, Kwanho, 2017. "Liquidity basis between credit default swaps and corporate bonds markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 98-115.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign spreads; liquidity premia; convenience yields;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1021_15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.