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House price developments and fundamentals in the United States

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Author Info
Andrea Finicelli () (Banca d'Italia)

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Abstract

This paper discusses the limitations of the price-income ratio, the price-rent ratio, and of affordability measures as indicators of housing market conditions. For the purpose of assessing whether house prices are misaligned, the most sensible approach is to calculate the user cost of ownership and the implied theoretical ratio of house prices to rents, and compare the latter with the observed ratio. On the basis of this methodology, US house prices appear to have departed from fundamentals since 2004, cumulating an overvaluation of between 25 and 30 per cent by the third quarter of 2006.

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File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/econo/quest_ecofin_2/qef7/QEF_7.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department in its series Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) with number 7.

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Date of creation: May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_7_07

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Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
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Related research
Keywords: house prices; affordability; user cost; fundamentals; bubbles;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
R31 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Production Analysis and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Richard K. Green & Susan M. Wachter, 2005. "The American Mortgage in Historical and International Context," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 93-114, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. James M. Poterba, 1992. "Taxation and Housing: Old Questions, New Answers," NBER Working Papers 3963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17. [Downloadable!]
  6. Poterba, James M, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-52, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Markus K Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2006. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," FMG Discussion Papers dp579, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Patric H. Hendershott & Joel Slemrod, 1983. "Taxes and the User Cost of Capital for Owner-Occupied Housing," NBER Working Papers 0929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. John M. Quigley & Steven Raphael, 2004. "Is Housing Unaffordable? Why Isn't It More Affordable?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 191-214, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
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  1. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2008. "Permanent and Transitory Dynamics in House Prices and Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," Working Papers 2, University of Torino, Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato". [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Elias Oikarinen, 2008. "Empirical application of the housing-market no-arbitrage condition: problems, solutions and a Finnish case study," Discussion Papers 39, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
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