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The evolution of bad debts in Italy during the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis: a counterfactual analysis

Author

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  • Alessandro Notarpietro

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Lisa Rodano

    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a counterfactual exercise that aims at quantifying the contribution to the evolution of bad debts made by the two recessions that have hit the Italian economy since 2008. The counterfactual simulations are performed using the Bank of Italy�s Quarterly Model (BIQM). A �no-crises scenario� is built for the period 2008-2015. The counterfactual dynamics of the main macroeconomic and financial variables are used to feed a simple model, in which the new bad debt rate depends on macroeconomic conditions and borrowing costs. The analysis suggests that, in the absence of the two recessions � and of the economic policy decisions that were taken to combat their effects � non-financial corporations� bad debts at the end of 2015 would have reached �52 billion, instead of �143 billion. The ratio of bad debts to the total amount of loans to non-financial corporations would have reached 5%, a value in line with the pre-crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Notarpietro & Lisa Rodano, 2016. "The evolution of bad debts in Italy during the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis: a counterfactual analysis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 350, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_350_16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Parigi, Giuseppe & Siviero, Stefano, 2001. "An investment-function-based measure of capacity utilisation.: Potential output and utilised capacity in the Bank of Italy's quarterly model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 525-550, December.
    2. Michele Caivano & Lisa Rodano & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "The transmission of the global financial crisis to the Italian economy. A counterfactual analysis, 2008-2010," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 64, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Ugo Albertazzi & Alessandro Notarpietro & Stefano Siviero, 2016. "An inquiry into the determinants of the profitability of Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 364, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Fabio Busetti & Pietro Cova, 2013. "The macroeconomic impact of the sovereign debt crisis: a counterfactual analysis for the Italian economy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 201, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bagnai, Alberto & Granville, Brigitte & Mongeau Ospina, Christian A., 2017. "Withdrawal of Italy from the euro area: Stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 524-538.
    2. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi & Weber, Anke, 2017. "Can Italy grow out of its NPL overhang? A panel threshold analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 185-189.
    3. Marco Causi & Andrea Baldini, 2018. "Determinants Of Loan And Bad Loan Dynamics: Evidence From Italy," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' o232, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    4. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Alberto Bagnai & Brigitte Granville & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2017. "Withdrawal of Italy from the Eurozone: stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model," a/ Working Papers Series 1702, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    6. Guido Bulligan & Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Pietro Cova & Davide Fantino & Alberto Locarno & Lisa Rodano, 2017. "The Bank of Italy econometric model: an update of the main equations and model elasticities," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1130, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Ugo Albertazzi & Alessandro Notarpietro & Stefano Siviero, 2016. "An inquiry into the determinants of the profitability of Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 364, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Ignazio Visco, 2018. "Banche e finanza dopo la crisi: lezioni e sfide," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 71(282), pages 95-118.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; global financial crisis; sovereign debt crisis; banking; Italian economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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