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Genetic algorithm estimation of interest rate term structure

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  • Ricardo Gimeno

    ()
    (Banco de España)

  • Juan M. Nave

    ()
    (Universidad CEU Cardenal Herrera)

Abstract

The term structure of interest rates is an instrument that gives us the necessary information for valuing deterministic financial cash flows, measuring the economic market expectations and testing the effectiveness of monetary policy decisions. However, it is not directly observable and needs to be measured by smoothing data obtained from asset prices through statistical techniques. Adjusting parsimonious functional forms - as proposed by Nelson and Siegel (1987) and Svensson (1994) - is the most popular technique. This method is based on bond yields to maturity and the high degree of non linearity of the functions to be optimised make it very sensitive to the initial values employed. In this context, this paper proposes the use of genetic algorithms to find these values and reduce the risk of false convergence, showing that stable time series parameters are obtained without the need to impose any kind of restrictions.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/06/Fic/dt0634e.pdf
File Function: First version, December 2006
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0634.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0634

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Related research

Keywords: forward and spot interest rates; Nelson and Siegel model; non-linear optimization; numerical methods; Svensson model; yield curve estimation;

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References

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  1. Juan F. Jimeno & Esther Moral & Lorena Saiz, 2006. "Structural breaks in labor productivity growth: the United States vs. the European Union," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0625, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Silvia Fabiani & Martine Druant & Ignacio Hernando & Claudia Kwapil & Bettina Landau & Claire Loupias & Fernando Martins & Thomas Mathä & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Ad Stokman, 2005. "The pricing behaviour of firms in the Euro area: new survey evidence," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0536, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. K. C. Fung & Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Hitomi Iizaka & Alan Siu, 2005. "Hard Or Soft? Institutional Reforms And Infrastructure Spending As Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment In China," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 408-416.
  4. L. J. �lvarez & E. Dhyne & M. Hoeberichts & C. Kwapil & H. Le Bihan & P. L�nnemann & F. Martins & R. Sabbatini & H. Stahl & P. Vermeulen & J. Vilmunen, 2005. "Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: a Summary of New Micro Evidence," DNB Working Papers 062, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  5. Ruben Segura-Cayuela, 2006. "Inefficient Policies, Inefficient Institutions and Trade," 2006 Meeting Papers 502, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Álvarez, Luis J. & Burriel, Pablo & Hernando, Ignacio, 2005. "Price setting behaviour in Spain: evidence from micro PPI data," Working Paper Series 0522, European Central Bank.
  7. Enrique Alberola & Rodrigo César Salvado, 2006. "Banks, remittances and financial deepening in receiving countries. A model," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0621, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Luis J. Álvarez & Ignacio Hernando, 2006. "Competition and price adjustment in the euro area," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0629, Banco de Espa�a.
  9. Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Izquierdo & José Manuel Montero, 2006. "Real Exchange Rates, Dollarization and Industrial Employment in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4478, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  10. Josep M. Vilarrubia, 2006. "Neighborhood effects in economic growth," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0627, Banco de Espa�a.
  11. Luis J. Álvarez & Ignacio Hernando, 2005. "The price setting behaviour of Spanish firms: evidence from survey data," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0537, Banco de Espa�a.
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Cited by:
  1. Vermeulen, Philip & Gautier, Erwan & Stahl, Harald & Dossche, Maarten & Sabbatini, Roberto & Dias, Daniel & Hernando, Ignacio, 2007. "Price setting in the euro area: some stylised facts from individual producer price data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
  3. Eder, Armin & Keiler, Sebastian & Pichl, Hannes, 2013. "Interest rate risk and the Swiss solvency test," Discussion Papers 41/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Praveen Kujal & Juan Ruiz, 2007. "Cost effectiveness of R&D and strategic trade policy," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0701, Banco de Espa�a.
  5. Emma Berenguer-Carceles & Ricardo Gimeno & Juan M. Nave, 2012. "Estimation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Methodology and Applications," Working Papers 12.06, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Financial Economics and Accounting (former Department of Business Administration).
  6. Paul Beaumont & Yaniv Jerassy-Etzion, 2011. "Computing maximally smooth forward rate curves for coupon bonds: An iterative piecewise quartic polynomial interpolation method," Working Papers wp2011_08_03, Department of Economics, Florida State University.

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