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Genetic algorithm estimation of interest rate term structure

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Author Info
Ricardo Gimeno () (Banco de España)
Juan M. Nave () (Universidad CEU Cardenal Herrera)

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Abstract

The term structure of interest rates is an instrument that gives us the necessary information for valuing deterministic financial cash flows, measuring the economic market expectations and testing the effectiveness of monetary policy decisions. However, it is not directly observable and needs to be measured by smoothing data obtained from asset prices through statistical techniques. Adjusting parsimonious functional forms - as proposed by Nelson and Siegel (1987) and Svensson (1994) - is the most popular technique. This method is based on bond yields to maturity and the high degree of non linearity of the functions to be optimised make it very sensitive to the initial values employed. In this context, this paper proposes the use of genetic algorithms to find these values and reduce the risk of false convergence, showing that stable time series parameters are obtained without the need to impose any kind of restrictions.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/06/Fic/dt0634e.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banco de España in its series Banco de España Working Papers with number 0634.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0634

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Related research
Keywords: forward and spot interest rates; nelson and siegel model; non-linear optimization; numerical methods; svensson model; yield curve estimation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computational Techniques

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco M. Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Roberto Sabbatini & Fernando Martins & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmun, 2005. "Sticky prices in the euro area - a summary of new micro evidence," Working Paper Series 563, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Josep M. Vilarrubia, 2006. "Neighborhood effects in economic growth," Banco de España Working Papers 0627, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  3. S. Fabiani & M. Druant & I. Hernando & C. Kwapil & B. Landau & C. Loupias & F. Martins & T. Mathä & R. Sabbatini & H. Stahl & A. Stokman, 2005. "The pricing behaviour of firms in the euro area : new survey evidence," Research series 200511-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Izquierdo & José M. Montero, 2006. "Real exchange rates, dollarization and industrial employment in Latin America," Banco de España Working Papers 0601, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Luis J. Álvarez & Ignacio Hernando, 2005. "The price setting behaviour of spanish firms - evidence from survey data," Working Paper Series 538, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Juan F. Jimeno & Esther Moral & Lorena Saiz, 2006. "Structural breaks in labor productivity growth: the United States vs. the European Union," Banco de España Working Papers 0625, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  7. K. C. Fung & Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Hitomi Iizaka & Alan Siu, 2005. "Hard Or Soft? Institutional Reforms And Infrastructure Spending As Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment In China," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 408-416. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Luis J. Álvarez & Ignacio Hernando, 2006. "Competition and price adjustment in the euro area," Banco de España Working Papers 0629, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  9. Enrique Alberola & Rodrigo César Salvado, 2006. "Banks, remittances and financial deepening in receiving countries. A model," Banco de España Working Papers 0621, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ruben Segura-Cayuela, 2006. "Inefficient Policies, Inefficient Institutions and Trade," 2006 Meeting Papers 502, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Luis J. Álvarez & Pablo Burriel & Ignacio Hernando, 2005. "Price setting behaviour in Spain: evidence from micro PPI data," Banco de España Working Papers 0527, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Álvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lünnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2005. "Price setting in the euro area: Some stylized facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Research series 200509-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Praveen Kujal & Juan Ruiz, 2007. "Cost effectiveness of R&D and strategic trade policy," Banco de España Working Papers 0701, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Philip Vermeulen & Daniel Dias & Maarten Dossche & Erwan Gautier & Ignacio Hernando & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl, 2007. "Price setting in the euro area: some stylised facts from individual producer price data," Banco de España Working Papers 0703, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Agustín Maravall & Ana del Río, 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Banco de España Working Papers 0728, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  4. Enrique Alberola & José María Serena, 2007. "Global financial integration, monetary policy and reserve accumulation. Assessing the limits in emerging economies," Banco de España Working Papers 0706, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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