Option-implied preferences adjustments, density forecasts, and the equity risk premium
AbstractThe main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two lognormals and several alternative risk adjustments: the power, exponential and habit inspired based stochastic discount factors. Moreover, by allowing additional flexibility in the shape of the stochastic discount factor, two other ad hoc time varying risk aversion adjustments are also employed. Our results show that, between October 1996 and March 2000, we can reject the hypothesis that the risk neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at four and eight week horizons. When forecasting through risk adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. Somehow surprisingly, all risk adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Finally, from October 1996 to December 2004, the ex ante risk premium perceived by investors and that are embedded in option prices is between 12 and 18 percent higher than the premium required to compensate the same investors for the realised volatility in stock market returns.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0630.
Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
risk-adjustments; option-implied densities; forecasting performance; equity-risk premium;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-02-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-FMK-2007-02-24 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-FOR-2007-02-24 (Forecasting)
- NEP-UPT-2007-02-24 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995.
"By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior,"
NBER Working Papers
4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Kang, Byung Jin & Kim, Tong Suk, 2006. "Option-implied risk preferences: An extension to wider classes of utility functions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 180-198, May.
- John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
- Nave, Juan & Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo & León, Angel, 2005. "The Relationship between Risk and Expected Return in Europe," DFAEII Working Papers 2005-08, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
- Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003.
"There is a Risk-Return Tradeoff After All,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "There is a Risk-Return Tradeoff After All," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-24, CIRANO.
- Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "There is a Risk-Return Tradeoff After All," NBER Working Papers 10913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 2000.
"Nonparametric Risk Management and Implied Risk Aversion,"
NBER Working Papers
6130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
- Ben Craig & Ernst Glatzer & Joachim Keller & Martin Scheicher, 2003. "The forecasting performance of German stock option densities," Working Paper 0312, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Bondarenko, Oleg, 2003. "Estimation of risk-neutral densities using positive convolution approximation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 85-112.
- Alonso, Francisco & Blanco, Roberto & Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo, 2005. "Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities," DFAEII Working Papers 2005-09, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
- Lior Menzly & Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Understanding Predictability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-47, February.
- Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
- Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000.
"Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-51.
- Jens Carsten Jackwerth., 1996. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-265, University of California at Berkeley.
- Jens Carsten Jackwerth, 1998. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Finance 9803002, EconWPA.
- Joshua Rosenberg & Robert F. Engle, 2000.
"Empirical Pricing Kernels,"
New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires
99-014, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Bliss, Robert R. & Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos, 2002. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 381-422, March.
- Melick, William R. & Thomas, Charles P., 1997. "Recovering an Asset's Implied PDF from Option Prices: An Application to Crude Oil during the Gulf Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(01), pages 91-115, March.
- Berkowitz, Jeremy, 2001. "Testing Density Forecasts, with Applications to Risk Management," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 465-74, October.
- Keller, Joachim & Glatzer, Ernst & Craig, Ben R. & Scheicher, Martin, 2003. "The Forecasting Performance of German Stock Option Densities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
- Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mar�a Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de Espa�a).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.