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Trends in Income and Price Elasticities of Transport Demand (1850-2010)

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  • Roger Fouquet

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to estimate trends in income and price elasticities and to offer insights for the future growth in transport use, with particular emphasis on the impact of energy and technological transitions. The results indicate that income and price elasticities of passenger transport demand in the United Kingdom were very large (3.1 and -1.5, respectively) in the mid-nineteenth century, and declined since then. In 2010, long run income and price elasticity of aggregate land transport demand were estimated to be 0.8 and -0.6. These trends suggest that future elasticities related to transport demand in developed economies may decline very gradually and, in developing economies, where elasticities are often larger, they will probably decline more rapidly as the economies develop. Because of the declining trends in elasticities, future energy and technological transitions are not likely to generate the growth rates in energy consumption that occurred following transitions in the nineteenth century. Nevertheless, energy and technological transitions, such as the car and the airplane, appear to have delayed and probably will delay declining trends in income and price elasticity of aggregate land transport demand.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BC3 in its series Working Papers with number 2012-01.

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Date of creation: Feb 2012
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Publication status: Published
Handle: RePEc:bcc:wpaper:2012-01

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Keywords: Energy Services; Demand; Transport; Economic Development; Rebound Effect.;

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  1. Roger Fouquet & Peter J.G. Pearson, 2012. "The Long Run Demand for Lighting:Elasticities and Rebound Effects in Different Phases of Economic Development," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
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  13. Roger Fouquet, 2010. "The Slow Search for Solutions: Lessons from Historical Energy Transitions by Sector and Service," Working Papers 2010-05, BC3.
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  17. Alessio Moneta & Andreas Chai, 2010. "The evolution of Engel curves and its implications for structural change," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201009, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Lecca, Patrizio & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Turner, Karen, 2014. "The added value from a general equilibrium analysis of increased efficiency in household energy use," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 51-62.
  2. Avner, Paolo & Rentschler, Jun & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2014. "Carbon price efficiency : lock-in and path dependence in urban forms and transport infrastructure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6941, The World Bank.

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