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Steady State Analysis of an Open Economy General Equilibrium Model for Brazil

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Author Info

  • Mirta Noemí Sataka Bugarin
  • Roberto de Goes Ellery Jr.
  • Victor Gomes Silva
  • Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos

Abstract

The aim of the present research is to build an open economy recursive general equilibrium model for the Brazilian economy in order to numerically assess the corresponding steady state equilibrium. This characterization allows us to numerically compute the endogenously determined steady state key relationship, namely the primary surplus aggregate output as well as the debt-product ratio among other variables, as functions of the monetary and fiscal policy parameters chosen by the government of the model economy. The adopted model introduces a transaction technology, which allows us to obtain a monetary equilibrium at steady state. This economy differs from the one used by Ljungqvist and Sargent (2000) for it considers an open economy with accumulation and production. The main result has shown that under the adopted parameterization the steady state of the model economy can numerically characterized by a debt output ratio of 0.3387. The numerical simulations show alternative steady states attainable by the government of the model economy. In order to finance higher expenses the government is bounded to trade-off higher interest rate (low inflation or high return on real money balances) with low operational surpluses due to the higher debt output ratio at the long run equilibrium.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps92.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 92.

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Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:92

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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References

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  1. Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2001. "Evaluation of the Central Bank of Brazil Structural Model's Inflation Forecasts in an Inflation Targeting Framework," Working Papers Series 16, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  2. Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo & Thaís Porto Ferreira, 2002. "Os Preços Administrados e a Inflação no Brasil," Working Papers Series 59, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Aloisio Araujo & Marcia Leon, 2004. "Speculative Attacks on Debts and Optimum Currency Area: A Welfare Analysis," Working Papers Series 84, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Solange Maria Guerra, 2002. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Working Papers Series 54, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  5. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2001. "Os Impactos Econômicos da CPMF: Teoria e Evidência," Working Papers Series 21, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  6. José Fajardo & Aquiles Farias, 2002. "Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions and Brazilian Data," Working Papers Series 52, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2003. "Real Balances in the Utility Function: Evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 68, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  8. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2000. "An Information Theory Approach to the Aggregation of Log-Linear Models," Working Papers Series 4, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2002. "Speculative Attacks on Debts, Dollarization and Optimum Currency Areas," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 446, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  10. Eduardo Lundberg, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Banking Supervision Functions on the Central Bank," Working Papers Series 2, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  11. Thomas Y. Wu, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Reduce Inflation? An Analysis for the OECD Industrial Countries," Working Papers Series 83, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  12. Arnildo da Silva Correa & Ronald Otto Hillbrecht, 2004. "Ciclos Internacionais de Negócios: Uma Análise de Mudança de Regime Markoviano para Brasil, Argentina e Estados Unidos," Working Papers Series 88, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  13. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2003. "Medium-Size Macroeconomic Model for the Brazilian Economy," Working Papers Series 64, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  14. Arnildo da Silva Correa, 2003. "Diferenças e Semelhanças entre Países da América Latina: Uma Análise de Markov Switching para os Ciclos Econômicos de Brasil e Argentina," Working Papers Series 80, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  15. André Soares Loureiro & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2004. "Risk Premia for Emerging Markets Bonds: Evidence from Brazilian Government Debt, 1996-2002," Working Papers Series 85, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  16. Marcelle Chauvet, 2000. "Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 7, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  17. Ricardo Schechtman & Valéria Salomão Garcia & Sergio Mikio Koyama & Guilherme Cronemberger Parente, 2004. "Credit Risk Measurement and the Regulation of Bank Capital and Provision Requirements in Brazil - A Corporate Analysis," Working Papers Series 91, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  18. Emanuel-Werner Kohlscheen, 2000. "Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and Intervention Activity," Working Papers Series 9, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sergio R. S. Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2008. "Long-Range Dependence In Exchange Rates: The Case Of The European Monetary System," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 199-223.
  2. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Márcio I. Nakane, 2006. "Comparing equilibrium real interest rates: different approaches to measure Brazilian rates," Working Papers Series 101, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Maurício S. Bugarin & Fabia A. de Carvalho, 2005. "Comment on Market Discipline and Monetary Policy by Carl Walsh," Working Papers Series 95, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  5. Carlos Gustavo Machicado, 2007. "Macroeconomic and Welfare Effects of Public Infrastructure Investment in Five Latin American Countries," Development Research Working Paper Series 14/2007, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.

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