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Steady State Analysis of an Open Economy General Equilibrium Model for Brazil

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Author Info
Mirta Noemí Sataka Bugarin
Roberto de Goes Ellery Jr.
Victor Gomes Silva
Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos

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Abstract

The aim of the present research is to build an open economy recursive general equilibrium model for the Brazilian economy in order to numerically assess the corresponding steady state equilibrium. This characterization allows us to numerically compute the endogenously determined steady state key relationship, namely the primary surplus aggregate output as well as the debt-product ratio among other variables, as functions of the monetary and fiscal policy parameters chosen by the government of the model economy. The adopted model introduces a transaction technology, which allows us to obtain a monetary equilibrium at steady state. This economy differs from the one used by Ljungqvist and Sargent (2000) for it considers an open economy with accumulation and production. The main result has shown that under the adopted parameterization the steady state of the model economy can numerically characterized by a debt output ratio of 0.3387. The numerical simulations show alternative steady states attainable by the government of the model economy. In order to finance higher expenses the government is bounded to trade-off higher interest rate (low inflation or high return on real money balances) with low operational surpluses due to the higher debt output ratio at the long run equilibrium.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 92.

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Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:92

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  1. Victorio Y. T. Chu & Márcio I. Nakane, 2001. "Credit Channel without the LM Curve," Working Papers Series 20, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Solange Gouvea, 2007. "Price Rigidity in Brazil: Evidence from CPI Micro Data," Working Papers Series 143, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gilneu F. A. Vivan & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "A New Proposal for Collection and Generation of Information on Financial Institutions' Risk: the case of derivatives," Working Papers Series 133, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Maurício S. Bugarin & Fabia A. de Carvalho, 2005. "Comment on Market Discipline and Monetary Policy by Carl Walsh," Working Papers Series 95, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Arnildo da Silva Correa & André Minella, 2006. "Nonlinear Mechanisms of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: a Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil," Working Papers Series 122, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Eduardo José Araújo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2007. "Building Confidence Intervals with Block Bootstraps for the Variance Ratio Test of Predictability," Working Papers Series 151, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Eduardo Saliby & Joséte Florencio do Santos, 2006. "Out-Of-The_Money Monte Carlo Simulation Option Pricing: the join use of Importance Sampling and Descriptive Sampling," Working Papers Series 116, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Roberta Blass Staub & Geraldo da Silva e Souza, 2007. "A Probabilistic Approach for Assessing the Significance of Contextual Variables in Nonparametric Frontier Models: an Application for Brazilian Banks," Working Papers Series 150, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Marcos M. Abe & Eui J. Chang & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Density using Parametric Models: The Case of Brazil," Working Papers Series 138, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Márcio I. Nakane, 2006. "Comparing equilibrium real interest rates: different approaches to measure Brazilian rates," Working Papers Series 101, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Eduardo Saliby, 2007. "Credit Risk Monte Carlos Simulation Using Simplified Creditmetrics' Model: the joint use of importance sampling and descriptive sampling," Working Papers Series 132, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Eduardo J. A. Lima & Felipe Luduvice & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "Forecasting Interest Rates: an application for Brazil," Working Papers Series 120, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. Flávia Mourão Graminho, 2006. "A Neoclassical Analysis of the Brazilian "Lost-Decades"," Working Papers Series 123, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Aloísio P. Araújo & José Valentim M. Vicente, 2006. "Contagion, Bankruptcy and Social Welfare Analysis in a Financial Economy with Risk Regulation Constraint," Working Papers Series 118, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  14. Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2007. "Long-Range Dependence in Exchange Rates: the case of the European Monetary System," Working Papers Series 131, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Marcelo Y. Takami & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Evaluation of Default Risk for The Brazilian Banking Sector," Working Papers Series 135, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. Osmani T. Guillen & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2008. "Characterizing the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 158, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  17. José Álvaro Rodrigues Neto, 2006. "Representing Roomates' Preferences with Symmetric Utilities," Working Papers Series 105, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Ricardo Schechtman, 2007. "Joint Validation of Credit Rating PDs under Default Correlation," Working Papers Series 149, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  19. Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "The Dynamic Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 124, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Maria da Glória D. S. Araújo & Mirta Bugarin & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Jose Ricardo C. Silva, 2006. "The Effect of Adverse Supply Shocks on Monetary Policy and Output," Working Papers Series 103, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  21. Claudio Henrique da Silveira Barbedo & Eduardo Facó Lemgruber, 2007. "The Effect of Bid-Ask Prices on Brazilian Options Implied Volatility: A Case Study of Telemar Call Options," Working Papers Series 144, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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