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Indicadores Derivados de Agregados Monetários

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando de Aquino Fonseca Neto
  • José Albuquerque Júnior

Abstract

This work has objective to verify, from causality and cointegration tests, if monetary aggregates can anticipate fluctuations in by products and prices in Brazil. Monthly data, for monetary aggregates, IPCA and real GDP, from jan/95 to mar/02 have been used. The broad money supply were evaluated in their original form in order to represent financial wealth, weighed by the Divisia index, as an attempt for estimating better measures of macroeconomic liquidity, and adjusted for gathering of the Net Domestic Credit in primary terms. The results do not indicate that the balance found using the Divisia index has contributed to improving the performance of primary aggregates for the purposes of the experiment. The broader concepts, stemming from the M3 and M4, mainly the Net Domestic Credit gathered from the M3, had shown time antecedence with the real product. Fluctuations in the prices, in turn, can be anticipated mostly the financial wealth and liquidity indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando de Aquino Fonseca Neto & José Albuquerque Júnior, 2002. "Indicadores Derivados de Agregados Monetários," Working Papers Series 47, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:47
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    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/wps47.pdf
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