Determinantes da Captação Líquida dos Depósitos de Poupança

This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of factors that affect the net inflow of savings deposits. To achieve this goal, the paper presents the impact of regulatory changes, which have occurred in the period from March 2003 to November 2011, had in attracting savings, uses quantitative methods to check the sensitivity of savings deposits to their interest rate, to the increased of the real population income and to the interest rate of alternative financial products. It also analyzes the variation of savings deposits by value range of application. The main conclusions of the study are that the increase of one basis point in the difference, net of tax collection, between financial products linked to the interbank floating rate (taxa DI) and the savings deposits interest rate reduces the net inflow of individuals daily savings deposits in values around R$ 1.39 million and R$ 1.48 million. As for corporations, this reduction would be between R$ 876 thousands and R$ 893 thousands. We also found evidence of precautionary savings. That phenomenon is characterized by the economic literature as the tendency of families to increase their reserves in the face of greater uncertainty about future income that, in this study, was measured by the unemployment rate of the economy. There were also indications that significant portion of savings deposits could be being used as a checking account and that the greater movement of savings deposits occurs in the accounts of the largest depositors.