Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A Simple Model for Inflation Targeting in Brazil

Contents:

Author Info

  • Paulo Springer de Freitas
  • Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Based on a 6 equation model by Haldane and Battini (1999), we estimated a Phillips and an IS equations for Brazil after the Real Plan, in order to study the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy. The results show that interest rate affects output gap with a lag of one quarter and output is positively related to inflation with a one lag only. The devaluation of the nominal exchange rate has also a contemporaneous effect on inflation. We also made stochastic simulations in order to depict the inflation and output gap volatility loci under alternative Taylor-type rules and under an optimal rule, which minimizes a loss function that depends on a weighted average of inflation and output gap variances. The stochastic simulation showed that when compared to the variance in inflation, output gap variance appears to be more sensitive to the weights given in the loss function. It also showed that optimization procedures longer than 6 periods are inefficient and the most efficient frontier horizons are set within the range of 2 to 4 periods. Finally, sub-optimal but simple rules, like Taylor type rules can perform as well as the optimal ones, depending on the parameters chosen and on the preferences of the Central Bank.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps18.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 18.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: Apr 2001
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published in Economia Aplicada (Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics), Vol. 6, no. 1 (Jan-Mar 2002): 31-48.
    Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:18

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Fijación de metas inflacionarias en una economía dolarizada: la experiencia de Perú," Research Department Publications 4424, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    2. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience," IDB Publications 6827, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Guillermo Ortiz, 2002. "Central bank perspectives on stabilization policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 37-68.
    4. Moron, Eduardo & Winkelried, Diego, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for financially vulnerable economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 23-51, February.
    5. Javier Gómez, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002854, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    6. Guillermo Ortiz, 2002. "Monetary policy in a changing economic environment : the Latin American experience," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 207-239.
    7. Javier Gómez Pineda, . "Inflation Targeting, Sudden Stops and the Cost of Fear of Floating," Borradores de Economia 276, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2008. "Metas de inflación en una economía dolarizada: La experiencia del Perú," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 10(1), pages 7-44, December.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.