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An Econometric Cntribution to the Intertemporal Approach of the Current Account

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  • Wagner Piazza Gaglianone
  • João Victor Issler

Abstract

This paper investigates an intertemporal optimization model to analyze the current account through Campbell & Shiller’s (1987) approach. In this setup, a Wald test is conducted to analyze a set of restrictions imposed to a VAR, used to forecast the current account for a set of countries. We focused here on three estimation procedures: OLS, SUR and the two-way error decomposition of Fuller & Battese (1974). We also propose an original note on Granger causality, which is a necessary condition to perform the Wald test. Theoretical results show that, in the presence of global shocks, OLS and SUR estimators might lead to a biased covariance matrix, with serious implications to the validation of the model. A small Monte Carlo simulation confirms these findings and indicates the Fuller & Battese procedure in the presence of global shocks. An empirical exercise for the G-7 countries is also provided, and the results of the Wald test substantially change with different estimation techniques. In addition, global shocks can account up to 40% of the total residuals of the G-7.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps178.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 178.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:178

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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