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Expectations and Monetary Policy: Experimental Evidence

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  • Oleksiy Kryvtsov
  • Luba Petersen

Abstract

The effectiveness of monetary policy depends, to a large extent, on market expectations of its future actions. In a standard New Keynesian business-cycle model with rational expectations, systematic monetary policy reduces the variance of inflation and the output gap by at least two-thirds. These stabilization benefits can be substantially smaller if expectations are non-rational. We design an economic experiment that identifies the contribution of expectations to macroeconomic stabilization achieved by systematic monetary policy. We find that, despite some non-rational component in expectations formed by experiment participants, monetary policy is quite potent in providing stabilization, reducing macroeconomic variance by roughly half.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 13-44.

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Length: 70 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-44

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Keywords: Business fluctuations and cycles; Monetary policy implementation; Transmission of monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April.
  2. Nelson, Philip, 1974. "Advertising as Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(4), pages 729-54, July/Aug..
  3. Klaus Adam, 2007. "Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 603-636, 04.
  4. Tiziana Assenza & Peter Heemeijer & Cars Hommes & Domenica Massaro, 2011. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," DNB Working Papers 298, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  5. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
  6. Ramon Marimon & Stephen E. Spear & Shyam Sunder, 1993. "Expectationally-driven market volatility: An experimental study," Economics Working Papers 21, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  7. Shin-Ichi Nishiyama, 2009. "Monetary Policy Lag, Zero Lower Bound, and Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 09-2, Bank of Canada.
  8. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
  9. Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand, 2012. "Reducing overreaction to central banks' disclosures:theory and experiment," Working Papers 2012-08, Swiss National Bank.
  10. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2011. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation: Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaced by CentER DP 2012-072)," Discussion Paper 2011-053, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  11. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?," NBER Working Papers 14586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The experimental macroeconomics of monetary policy
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-11-05 16:44:00
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Cited by:
  1. Jasmina Arifovic & Janet Hua Jiang, 2014. "Do Sunspots Matter? Evidence from an Experimental Study of Bank Runs," Working Papers 14-12, Bank of Canada.
  2. Jasmina ARIFOVIC & Murat YILDIZOGLU, 2014. "Learning the Ramsey outcome in a Kydland & Prescott economy," Cahiers du GREThA 2014-06, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.
  3. Guidon Fenig & Mariya Mileva & Luba Petersen, 2013. "Asset Trading and Monetary Policy in Production Economies," Working Papers dp13-08, CRABE, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.

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