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Consumer Interest Rates and Retail Mutual Fund Flows

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  • Jesus Sierra
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    Abstract

    This paper documents a link between the real and financial sides of the economy. We find that retail equity mutual fund flows in Canada are negatively related to current and past changes in a component of the prime and 5-year mortgage rates that is uncorrelated with government rates. The effect is present when we control for other determinants of fund flows and is more pronounced for big and old funds. The results suggest that consumers’ investments in domestic equity mutual funds take time to respond to changes in interest rates, and that developments in the market for consumer debt may have spillovers into other areas of the financial services industry.

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    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/wp2012-39.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 12-39.

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    Length: 33 pages
    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-39

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    Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
    Phone: 613 782-8845
    Fax: 613 782-8874
    Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

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    Keywords: Financial services; Interest rates;

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    References

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    1. Rakowski, David & Wang, Xiaoxin, 2009. "The dynamics of short-term mutual fund flows and returns: A time-series and cross-sectional investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2102-2109, November.
    2. Diane Del Guercio & Paula A. Tkac, 2001. "Star power: the effect of Morningstar ratings on mutual fund flows," Working Paper 2001-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Ippolito, Richard A, 1992. "Consumer Reaction to Measures of Poor Quality: Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 45-70, April.
    4. Jank, Stephan, 2011. "Mutual fund flows, expected returns, and the real economy," CFR Working Papers 11-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    5. Anthony W. Lynch & David K. Musto, 2003. "How Investors Interpret Past Fund Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 2033-2058, October.
    6. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    7. Judith A. Chevalier & Glenn D. Ellison, 1995. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," NBER Working Papers 5234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Richard B. Evans, 2010. "Mutual Fund Incubation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1581-1611, 08.
    9. Franklin Edwards & Xin Zhang, 1998. "Mutual Funds and Stock and Bond Market Stability," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 257-282, June.
    10. Brown, Keith C & Harlow, W V & Starks, Laura T, 1996. " Of Tournaments and Temptations: An Analysis of Managerial Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 85-110, March.
    11. Guercio, Diane Del & Tkac, Paula A., 2002. "The Determinants of the Flow of Funds of Managed Portfolios: Mutual Funds vs. Pension Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(04), pages 523-557, December.
    12. Andrea Frazzini & Owen A. Lamont, 2005. "Dumb Money: Mutual Fund Flows and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 11526, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2010. "Luck versus Skill in the Cross-Section of Mutual Fund Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1915-1947, October.
    14. Goetzmann, William N & Peles, Nadav, 1997. "Cognitive Dissonance and Mutual Fund Investors," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 145-58, Summer.
    15. Ajay Khorana & Henri Servaes & Peter Tufano, 2009. "Mutual Fund Fees Around the World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1279-1310, March.
    16. Arellano, M, 1987. "Computing Robust Standard Errors for Within-Groups Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(4), pages 431-34, November.
    17. Karceski, Jason, 2002. "Returns-Chasing Behavior, Mutual Funds, and Beta's Death," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(04), pages 559-594, December.
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