Structural Multi-Equation Macroeconomic Models: Identification-Robust Estimation and Fit
AbstractWeak identification is likely to be prevalent in multi-equation macroeconomic models such as in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium setups. Identification difficulties cause the breakdown of standard asymptotic procedures, making inference unreliable. While the extensive econometric literature now includes a number of identification-robust methods that are valid regardless of the identification status of models, these are mostly limited-information-based approaches, and applications have accordingly been made on single-equation models such as the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. In this paper, we develop a set of identification-robust econometric tools that, regardless of the model's identification status, are useful for estimating and assessing the fit of a system of structural equations. In particular, we propose a vector auto-regression (VAR) based estimation and testing procedure that relies on inverting identification-robust multivariate statistics. The procedure is valid in the presence of endogeneity, structural constraints, identification difficulties, or any combination of these, and also provides summary measures of fit. Furthermore, it has the additional desirable features that it is robust to missing instruments, errors-in-variables, the specification of the data generating process, and the presence of contemporaneous correlation in the disturbances. We apply our methodology, using U.S. data, to the standard New Keynesian model such as the one studied in Clarida, Gali, and Gertler (1999). We find that, despite the presence of identification difficulties, our proposed method is able to shed some light on the fit of the considered model and, particularly, on the nature of the NKPC. Notably our results show that (i) confidence intervals obtained using our system-based approach are generally tighter than their single-equation counterparts, and thus are more informative, (ii) most model coefficients are significant at conventional levels, and (iii) the NKPC is preponderantly forward-looking, though not purely so.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 09-19.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
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Inflation and prices; Econometric and statistical methods;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-06-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-06-10 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2009-06-10 (Econometrics)
- NEP-MAC-2009-06-10 (Macroeconomics)
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- Fanelli, Luca, 2012.
"Determinacy, indeterminacy and dynamic misspecification in linear rational expectations models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 153-163.
- Luca Fanelli, 2010. "Determinacy, indeterminacy and dynamic misspecification in linear rational expectations models," Quaderni di Dipartimento 4, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna.
- Zhongjun Qu, 2011. "Inference and Speci?cation Testing in DSGE Models with Possible Weak Identification," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-058, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2010. "Estimation uncertainty in structural inflation models with real wage rigidities," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2554-2561, November.
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