Testing for Financial Contagion with Applications to the Canadian Banking System
AbstractThe author proposes a new test for financial contagion based on a non-parametric measure of the cross-market correlation. The test does not depend on the assumption that the data are drawn from a given probability distribution; therefore, it allows for maximal flexibility in fitting into the data. Simulation studies show that the test has reasonable size and good power to detect financial contagion, and that Forbes and Rigobon's test (2002) is conservative, suggesting that their test tends not to find evidence of contagion when it does exist. The author's new test is applied to investigate contagion from a variety of recent financial crises to the Canadian banking system. Three empirical results are obtained. First, compared to recent financial crises, including the 1987 U.S. stock market crash, 1994 Mexican peso crisis, and 1997 East Asian crisis, the ongoing 2007 subprime crisis has been having more persistent and stronger contagion impacts on the Canadian banking system. Second, the October 1997 East Asian crisis induced contagion in Asian countries, and it quickly spread to Latin American and G-7 countries. The contagion from the East Asian crisis to the Canadian banking system was not as strong or as persistent as that of the ongoing subprime crisis. However, it had a stronger impact on emerging markets. Third, there is no evidence of contagion from the 1994 Mexican peso crisis to the Canadian banking system. Contagion from that crisis occurred in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile, but the contagion effects of that crisis were limited to the Latin American region.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 09-14.
Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
Financial stability; Central bank research; Econometric and statistical methods;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-05-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2009-05-30 (Banking)
- NEP-FDG-2009-05-30 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-MON-2009-05-30 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2009-05-30 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996.
"Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”,"
7124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mervyn A. King & Sushil Wadhwani, 1989.
"Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
2910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan & de Vries, Casper, 2005.
"Banking system stability: a cross-Atlantic perspective,"
Working Paper Series
0527, European Central Bank.
- Philipp Hartmann & Stefan Straetmans & Casper de Vries, 2007. "Banking System Stability. A Cross-Atlantic Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 133-192 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philipp Hartmann & Stefan Straetmans & Casper G. De Vries, 2005. "Banking System Stability: A Cross-Atlantic Perspective," NBER Working Papers 11698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Gravelle, Toni & Kichian, Maral & Morley, James, 2006.
"Detecting shift-contagion in currency and bond markets,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 409-423, March.
- Toni Gravelle & Maral Kichian & James Morley, 2002. "Detecting shift-contagion in currency and bond markets," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 58, Society for Computational Economics.
- P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004.
"Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
- de Vries, Casper G & Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hartmann, P. & Straetmans, S. & De Vries, C.G., 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," Papers 71, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan & de Vries, Casper, 2001. "Asset market linkages in crisis periods," Working Paper Series 0071, European Central Bank.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005.
"Market Integration and Contagion,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
- MArdi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzales-Hermosillo & Vance L. Martin & Chrismin Tang, 2008.
"Are Financial Crises Alike?,"
CAMA Working Papers
2008-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Kristin J. Forbes, 2002.
"Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?,"
in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 77-132
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Working Papers 8194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
- Vance L. Martin & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, & Mardi Dungey & Renee A. Fry, 2004.
"Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies,"
Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings
243, Econometric Society.
- Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
- Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda GonzÃ¡lez-Hermosillo, 2004. "Empirical Modeling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 04/78, International Monetary Fund.
- Martin, V. & Dungey & M., 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 574, Econometric Society.
- Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
- Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/155, International Monetary Fund.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(2), pages 177-97, August.
- Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2012.
"Enter the dragon: Interactions between Chinese, US and Asia-Pacific equity markets, 1995–2010,"
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,
Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 521-541.
- Richard C. K. Burdekin & Pierre L. Siklos, 2011. "Enter the Dragon: Interactions between Chinese, US and Asia-Pacific Equity Markets, 1995-2010," Working Papers 232011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Richard C. K. Burdekin & Pierre L. Siklos, 2011. "Enter the Dragon: Interactions between Chinese, US and Asia-Pacific Equity Markets, 1995-2010," CAMA Working Papers 2011-35, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.