Computing the Accuracy of Complex Non-Random Sampling Methods: The Case of the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey
AbstractA number of central banks publish their own business conditions survey based on non-random sampling methods. The results of these surveys influence monetary policy decisions and thus affect expectations in financial markets. To date, however, no one has computed the statistical accuracy of these surveys because their respective non-random sampling method renders this assessment non-trivial. This paper describes a methodology for modeling complex non-random sampling behaviour, and computing relevant measures of statistical confidence, based on a given survey's historical sample selection practice. We apply this framework to the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey by describing the sampling method in terms of historical practices and Bayesian probabilities. This allows us to replicate the firm selection process using Monte Carlo simulations on a comprehensive micro-dataset of Canadian firms. We find, under certain assumptions, no evidence that the Bank's firm selection process results in biased estimates and/or wider confidence intervals.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 09-10.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
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Econometric and statistical methods; Central bank research; Regional economic developments;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
- C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
- C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-04-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-04-05 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2009-04-05 (Econometrics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, October.
- James G. MacKinnon, 2006.
"Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics,"
1028, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Tiff Macklem, 2002. "Information and Analysis for Monetary Policy: Coming to a Decision," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Summer), pages 11-18.
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