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An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Term Structure of Zero-Coupon Interest Rates

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Author Info
David J. Bolder
Grahame Johnson
Adam Metzler

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Abstract

Zero-coupon interest rates are the fundamental building block of fixed-income mathematics, and as such have an extensive number of applications in both finance and economics. The risk-free government zero-coupon term structure is, however, not directly observable and needs to be generated from the prices of marketable, coupon-bearing bonds. The authors introduce the first public-domain database of constant-maturity zero-coupon yield curves for the Government of Canada bond market. They first outline the mechanics of the curve-fitting algorithm that underlie the model, and then perform some preliminary statistical analysis on the resulting yield curves. The full sample period extends from January 1986 to May 2003; it is broken down into two subsamples, reflecting the structural and macroeconomic changes that impacted the Canadian fixed-income markets over that time. The authors examine the evolution of a number of key interest rates and yield-curve measures over the period, perform a principal-components analysis of the common factors that have influenced yield changes over time, and compare holding-period returns over the sample for assets of various maturities.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 04-48.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-48

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Related research
Keywords: Financial markets; Interest rates; Econometric and statistical methods;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Francis X. Diebold, & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2003. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/31, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Vincent Brousseau, 2002. "The functional form of yield curves," Working Paper Series 148, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Uri Ron, 2000. "A Practical Guide to Swap Curve Construction," Working Papers 00-17, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Christensen, Ian & Frédéric Dion & Christopher Reid, 2004. "Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate," Working Papers 04-43, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. David Jamieson Bolder & Scott Gusba, 2002. "Exponentials, Polynomials, and Fourier Series: More Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada," Working Papers 02-29, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. " Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-82, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Jamieson Bolder & Tiago Rubin, 2007. "Optimization in a Simulation Setting: Use of Function Approximation in Debt Strategy Analysis," Working Papers 07-13, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Stuart Landon, 2009. "The capitalization of taxes in bond prices: Evidence from the market for Government of Canada bonds," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_20, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. David Jamieson Bolder, 2006. "Modelling Term-Structure Dynamics for Risk Management: A Practitioner's Perspective," Working Papers 06-48, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Jun Yang, 2007. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate
    ," Working Papers 07-21, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andraž, Grum, 2006. "Razvitost slovenskega trga dolžniškega kapitala in ocenitev krivulje donosnosti
    [The development of the Slovenian government debt market and estimation of the yiled curve]
    ," MPRA Paper 4876, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2005. "The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach," Working Papers 05-36, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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