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An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Term Structure of Zero-Coupon Interest Rates

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  • David J. Bolder
  • Grahame Johnson
  • Adam Metzler

Abstract

Zero-coupon interest rates are the fundamental building block of fixed-income mathematics, and as such have an extensive number of applications in both finance and economics. The risk-free government zero-coupon term structure is, however, not directly observable and needs to be generated from the prices of marketable, coupon-bearing bonds. The authors introduce the first public-domain database of constant-maturity zero-coupon yield curves for the Government of Canada bond market. They first outline the mechanics of the curve-fitting algorithm that underlie the model, and then perform some preliminary statistical analysis on the resulting yield curves. The full sample period extends from January 1986 to May 2003; it is broken down into two subsamples, reflecting the structural and macroeconomic changes that impacted the Canadian fixed-income markets over that time. The authors examine the evolution of a number of key interest rates and yield-curve measures over the period, perform a principal-components analysis of the common factors that have influenced yield changes over time, and compare holding-period returns over the sample for assets of various maturities.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 04-48.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-48

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Keywords: Financial markets; Interest rates; Econometric and statistical methods;

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References

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  1. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  2. Christensen, Ian & Frédéric Dion & Christopher Reid, 2004. "Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate," Working Papers 04-43, Bank of Canada.
  3. David Jamieson Bolder & Scott Gusba, 2002. "Exponentials, Polynomials, and Fourier Series: More Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada," Working Papers 02-29, Bank of Canada.
  4. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2003. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a nonstructural analysis," Working Paper Series 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Brousseau, Vincent, 2002. "The functional form of yield curves," Working Paper Series 0148, European Central Bank.
  6. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. " Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-82, December.
  7. Uri Ron, 2000. "A Practical Guide to Swap Curve Construction," Working Papers 00-17, Bank of Canada.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. David Jamieson Bolder & Tiago Rubin, 2007. "Optimization in a Simulation Setting: Use of Function Approximation in Debt Strategy Analysis," Working Papers 07-13, Bank of Canada.
  2. Stuart Landon, 2009. "The capitalization of taxes in bond prices: Evidence from the market for Government of Canada bonds," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_20, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  3. Lange, Ronald H., 2013. "The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: A dynamic latent factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 261-274.
  4. Andraž, Grum, 2006. "Razvitost slovenskega trga dolžniškega kapitala in ocenitev krivulje donosnosti," MPRA Paper 4876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Melnikov, Alexander & Romaniuk, Yulia, 2006. "Evaluating the performance of Gompertz, Makeham and Lee-Carter mortality models for risk management with unit-linked contracts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 310-329, December.
  6. Kathlyn Lucia & Stephanie Price & Edwin Wong & Richard Startz, 2008. "The Changing Relation Between the Canadian and U.S. Yield Curves," Working Papers UWEC-2008-05, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  7. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2007. "The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: an equilibrium-based approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 561-583, May.
  8. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2013. "A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," Working Papers 13-10, Bank of Canada.
  9. David Jamieson Bolder, 2006. "Modelling Term-Structure Dynamics for Risk Management: A Practitioner's Perspective," Working Papers 06-48, Bank of Canada.
  10. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Jun Yang, 2007. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate," Working Papers 07-21, Bank of Canada.
  11. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada.
  12. David Bolder & Shudan Liu, 2007. "Examining Simple Joint Macroeconomic and Term-Structure Models: A Practitioner's Perspective," Working Papers 07-49, Bank of Canada.

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