Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Measuring Interest Rate Expectations in Canada

Contents:

Author Info

  • Grahame Johnson
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Financial market expectations regarding future policy actions by the Bank of Canada are an important input into the Bank's decision-making process, and they can be measured using a variety of sources. The author develops a simple expectations-based model to focus on measuring interest rate expectations that are implied by the current level of money market yields. The explanatory power of this model increases markedly in the period following the implementation of the Bank's regime of fixed announcement dates in November 2000, and it appears to accurately describe the behaviour of short-term yields. Term premiums are estimated for the various instruments examined, and observed market yields are adjusted by those amounts. Once the market yields are adjusted, they can be used to calculate implied forward rates for a series of dates in the future. These forward rates can be interpreted as representing the market's expectations for the future level of overnight rates at a specific date.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp03-26.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 03-26.

    as in new window
    Length: 54 pages
    Date of creation: 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:03-26

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
    Phone: 613 782-8845
    Fax: 613 782-8874
    Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

    Related research

    Keywords: Financial markets; Interest rates;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Froot, Kenneth A, 1989. " New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 283-305, June.
    2. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
    3. Brian Sack, 2002. "Extracting the expected path of monetary policy from futures rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Campbell, John, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Scholarly Articles 3163264, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    5. Francis A. Longstaff, 2000. "Arbitrage and the Expectations Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 989-994, 04.
    6. Walid Hejazi & Huiwen Lai & Xian Yang, 2000. "The expectations hypothesis, term premia, and the Canadian term structure of interest rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 133-148, February.
    7. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September.
    9. Pilegaard, Rasmus & Durré, Alain & Evjen, Snorre, 2003. "Estimating risk premia in money market rates," Working Paper Series 0221, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Chris D'Souza & Ingrid Lo & Stephen Sapp, 2007. "Price Formation and Liquidity Provision in Short-Term Fixed Income Markets," Working Papers 07-27, Bank of Canada.
    2. Tiff Macklem, 2005. "Commentary : central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 475-494.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:03-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.