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On Commodity-Sensitive Currencies and Inflation Targeting

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  • Clinton, Kevin

Abstract

Two aspects of the recent monetary history of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand stand out: the sensitivity of their dollars to prices of resource-based commodities, and inflation targeting. This paper explores various aspects of these phenomena. It uses standard empirical models, and an investigation of the different approaches to inflation targeting in the three countries—including a case study of the 1998 international financial crisis—to assess how well a floating currency serves a resource-rich economy, and how monetary policy ought to be conducted during periods of turbulence in commodity and currency markets. The broad swings and cycles in the Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand dollars are found to have been helpful to macroeconomic stability. It appears that the most effective monetary policy approach focuses on domestic inflation control over the medium term. In a crisis of confidence in the financial markets, of the kind that sporadically affected the Canadian dollar in the first half of the 1990s, a case can be made for short-term monetary actions to stabilize expectations. Apart from crisis situations, as long as a credible low-inflation policy is followed, monetary policy does not have to be concerned with the exchange rate per se.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 01-3.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:01-3

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Related research

Keywords: Exchange rates; Inflation targets; International topics; Monetary policy implementation;

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Cited by:
  1. Silvia Sgherri, 2005. "Explicit and Implicit Targets in Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 05/176, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Craig Beaumont & Li Cui, 2007. "Conquering Fear of Floating," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 07/2, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
  4. Gilles Duffrenot & Kimiko Sugimoto, 2010. "Pegging the future West African single currency in regard to internal/external competitiveness: a counterfactual analysis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp974, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  5. Celine Gauthier & David Tessier, 2002. "Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Canadian Evidence," Working Papers 02-31, Bank of Canada.
  6. Benjamin Dennis & Talan Iscan, 2002. "Terms of Trade Risk," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive totrisk, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.

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