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The Outlook for the Global Supply of Oil: Running on Faith?

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  • Olivier Gervais
  • Ilan Kolet

Abstract

The dramatic reduction in global demand, and the decline in the spot price of crude oil in the second half of last year, may have significant implications for the future supply of oil. Investments in conventional methods of extraction have been constrained, since easily accessible oil reserves are typically concentrated in countries with geopolitical uncertainty and/or state-run oil companies. Moreover, nearly half of all global oil production, and roughly 75 per cent of proven reserves, are accounted for by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In this paper, the authors assess the implications of recent developments for the future supply of oil. They find that (i) the OPEC cuts announced in December 2008 could provide important support for prices in the coming year, and (ii) low prices have depressed, and may continue to depress, oil infrastructure investment, and thus could amplify existing supply constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Gervais & Ilan Kolet, 2009. "The Outlook for the Global Supply of Oil: Running on Faith?," Discussion Papers 09-9, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:09-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calista Cheung & Sylvie Morin, 2007. "The Impact of Emerging Asia on Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 181-224, July-Dece.
    2. Richard Alm & Stephen P. A. Brown & Raghav Virmani, 2008. "Crude awakening: behind the surge in oil prices," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 3(may).
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    Cited by:

    1. Ron Alquist and Olivier Gervais, 2013. "The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Inflation and prices; International topics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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