The Outlook for the Global Supply of Oil: Running on Faith?
AbstractThe dramatic reduction in global demand, and the decline in the spot price of crude oil in the second half of last year, may have significant implications for the future supply of oil. Investments in conventional methods of extraction have been constrained, since easily accessible oil reserves are typically concentrated in countries with geopolitical uncertainty and/or state-run oil companies. Moreover, nearly half of all global oil production, and roughly 75 per cent of proven reserves, are accounted for by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In this paper, the authors assess the implications of recent developments for the future supply of oil. They find that (i) the OPEC cuts announced in December 2008 could provide important support for prices in the coming year, and (ii) low prices have depressed, and may continue to depress, oil infrastructure investment, and thus could amplify existing supply constraints.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Discussion Papers with number 09-9.
Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
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Business fluctuations and cycles; Inflation and prices; International topics;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-07-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2009-07-28 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-BEC-2009-07-28 (Business Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2009-07-28 (Energy Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Calista Cheung & Sylvie Morin, 2007. "The Impact of Emerging Asia on Commodity Prices," Working Papers 07-55, Bank of Canada.
- Stephen P. A. Brown & Raghav Virmani & Richard Alm, 2008. "Crude awakening: behind the surge in oil prices," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 3(may).
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