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Drugs and Violence in Colombia: a VECM Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Tomás González
  • Ron P Smith

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

Abstract

It has been widely argued that the production of illegal drugs, particularly cocaine, has financed guerrilla activity in Colombia. This paper uses quarterly time-series data for Colombia 1994-2005 to examine the interaction between legal agricultural production, illegal agricultural production of drugs and the number of guerrilla attacks. The time series analysis suggests that drug production acts as a weakly exogenous stochastic trend which has a negative effect on legal agricultural production and a positive effect on guerrilla attacks; with a long-run elasticity of attacks to drug production very close to unity.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomás González & Ron P Smith, 2009. "Drugs and Violence in Colombia: a VECM Analysis," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0906, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:0906
    as

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    File URL: https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/7560
    File Function: First version, 2009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Persson, Torsten & Besley, Tim, 2008. "The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 7101, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    3. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    4. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-573, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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