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The relationship between panel and synthetic control estimators of the effect of civil war

Author

Listed:
  • Vincenzo Bove

    (University of Warwick)

  • Leandro Eliay

    (European Commission)

  • Ron P Smith

    (Birkbeck, University of London)

Abstract

We examine the relationship between the case-study, synthetic control and large-N panel-data approaches using the costs of conflict as an example. In particular, we show that effects estimated from panel data models and effects estimated by the comparison of a treated case with a synthetic control are closely related. We then illustrate the similarities by studying the impact of civil war on the level and growth rate of GDP and discuss how to overcome some of the methodological challenges involved in quantifying the economic cost of war. We find that the incidence of internal conflicts has an economically significant one-off negative effect on the GDP level, as well as a negative effect on the growth rate of the GPD.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincenzo Bove & Leandro Eliay & Ron P Smith, 2014. "The relationship between panel and synthetic control estimators of the effect of civil war," BCAM Working Papers 1406, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkcam:1406
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    File URL: https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/26601/1/26601.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Alou Adessé Dama, 2021. "Exploring Tilly’s Theory : Violent Conflicts and Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa," CERDI Working papers hal-03401539, HAL.
    3. Acel Jardón & Onno Kuik & Richard S.J. Tol, 2020. "Causal Effects of PetroCaribe on Sustainable Development: A Synthetic Control Analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(1), pages 156-210, January.
    4. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
    5. Katarzyna Metelska-Szaniawska, 2016. "Reassessing the Economic Effects of Post-Socialist Constitutions Using the Synthetic Control Method," Working Papers 2016-18, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    6. Ferman, Bruno & Pinto, Cristine, 2016. "Revisiting the Synthetic Control Estimator," MPRA Paper 73982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Shih-Chih Chen & Jianing Hou & De Xiao, 2018. "“One Belt, One Road” Initiative to Stimulate Trade in China: A Counter-Factual Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-13, September.
    8. World Bank, 2016. "Jordan Economic Monitor, Fall 2016," World Bank Publications - Reports 25463, The World Bank Group.
    9. Christine Olivia Strong, 2023. "The impact of fiscal rules on government debt: evidence from the CFA zone," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2357-2391, November.

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