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The WTI/Brent oil futures price differential and the globalisation-regionalisation hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Michail Filippidis

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Portsmouth)

  • George Filis

    (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Bournemouth University)

  • Christos Floros

    (Department of Accounting & Finance, School of Management and Economics, Technological Educational Institute of Crete)

  • Renatas Kizys

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Portsmouth)

Abstract

This study examines the globalisation-regionalisation hypothesis in the WTI/Brent crude oil futures price differential by considering a set of the potential determinants at 1, 3 and 6 months to maturity contracts. To this end, we employ monthly data over the period 1993:1-2016:12 for a set of crude oil-market specific (convenience yield, consumption, production) and oil-futures market specific (open interest, trading volume) determinants. Our results can be outlined as follows. First, the WTI/Brent convenience yield spread can drive a wedge between the WTI and Brent oil futures prices for the nearby month and 3-month contracts. Second, the WTI/Brent oil production spread is a significant determinant for the 1-month, the 3-month and the 6-month to maturity contracts, while the WTI/Brent oil consumption spread is significant for the 6-month contract. Third, the WTI/Brent open interest spread appears to influence the oil futures price variability between the WTI and Brent for the 3-month and the 6-month contracts, while the WTI/Brent trading volume spread lends predictive power for the 1-month and the 3-month contracts. Fourth, the oil futures market does not appear to be globalised in every time period. We provide evidence of a regionalised oil futures market in the short-run horizon. Fifth, our robustness analysis lends support to the above findings. The findings of this study provide valuable information to energy investors, traders and hedgers.

Suggested Citation

  • Michail Filippidis & George Filis & Christos Floros & Renatas Kizys, 2018. "The WTI/Brent oil futures price differential and the globalisation-regionalisation hypothesis," BAFES Working Papers BAFES19, Department of Accounting, Finance & Economic, Bournemouth University.
    • Handle: RePEc:bam:wpaper:bafes19
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    Cited by:

    1. Michail Filippidis & George Filis & Georgios Magkonis & Panagiotis Tzouvanas, 2023. "Evaluating robust determinants of the WTI/Brent oil price differential: A dynamic model averaging analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 807-825, June.
    2. Xi, Yue & Zeng, Qing & Lu, Xinjie & Huynh, Toan L.D., 2022. "Oil and renewable energy stock markets: Unique role of extreme shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brent; convenience yield; globalisation-regionalisation hypothesis; oil futures differential; WTI;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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