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Tracking Under-Reported Financial Flows: China’s Development Finance and the Aid-Conflict Nexus Revisited

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  • Strange, Austin M.
  • Parks , Bradley
  • Tierney, Michael J.
  • Fuchs, Andreas
  • Dreher , Axel

Abstract

China’s development finance is sizable but reliable information is scarce. To address critical information gaps, we introduce a new open source methodology for collecting project-level development finance information and create a database of Chinese official finance to Africa from 2000-2011. Our initial data collection efforts found that China’s official finance commitments amount to approximately US$ 73 billion over the 2000-2011 period. We provide details on 1,511 non-investment projects to 50 African countries. We use this database to extend previous research on the aid-conflict nexus. Our results show that sudden withdrawals of “traditional” aid are only more likely to induce conflict in the absence of sufficient alternative funding from China. More broadly, these findings highlight the importance of gathering better data on the development activities of China and other non-traditional donors to better understand the link between foreign aid and conflict.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0553.

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Date of creation: 29 Jan 2014
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Handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0553

Note: This paper is part of http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/view/schriftenreihen/sr-3.html
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Keywords: Development Finance; Foreign Aid; Non-DAC Donors; South-South Cooperation; China; Aid Shocks; Violent Armed Conflict.;

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  1. Axel Dreher & Andreas Fuchs, 2011. "Rogue Aid? The Determinants of China’s Aid Allocation," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 93, Courant Research Centre PEG, revised 29 Feb 2012.
  2. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2002. "AID, Policy and Peace: Reducing the risks of civil conflict," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 435-450.
  3. Konstantinos Drakos, 2007. "The size of under-reporting bias in recorded transnational terrorist activity," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(4), pages 909-921.
  4. Mona Lyne & Daniel Nielson & Michael Tierney, 2009. "Controlling coalitions: Social lending at the multilateral development banks," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 407-433, December.
  5. J. de Ree & E. Nillesen, 2006. "Aiding violence or peace? : the impact of foreign aid on the risk of civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 06-09, Utrecht School of Economics.
  6. Fuchs, Andreas & Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2013. "The Needy Donor: An Empirical Analysis of India’s Aid Motives," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 110-128.
  7. King, Gary & Lowe, Will, 2003. "An Automated Information Extraction Tool for International Conflict Data with Performance as Good as Human Coders: A Rare Events Evaluation Design," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(03), pages 617-642, June.
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