Tomatoes or Tomato Pickers? - Free Trade and Migration in the NAFTA Case
AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between trade liberalisation and migration in the case of Mexico. The increasing bilateral trade between Mexico and the United States after signing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was supposed to stem the illegal Mexican migration flow by contributing to economic growth and job creation in both countries. Twelve years after the treaty has come into effect questions emerge to what extent NAFTA was able to reduce the migration pressure: are trade and migration substitutes like the policy-makers had assumed or are they complements? Using monthly data from 1966 until 2004 we estimate a distributed lag model with the number of apprehensions at the US-Mexican border as a proxy for illegal migration. The results indicate that increasing trade flows cause larger illegal migration from Mexico to the United States.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0429.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision: Dec 2006
Migration; International Trade; Distributed Lag Model; Mexico; NAFTA;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
- F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
- F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
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