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Tomatoes or Tomato Pickers? - Free Trade and Migration in the NAFTA Case

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Author Info
Amaranta Melchor del Río () (University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics)
Susanne Thorwarth () (Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW))
Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between trade liberalisation and migration in the case of Mexico. The increasing bilateral trade between Mexico and the United States after signing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was supposed to stem the illegal Mexican migration flow by contributing to economic growth and job creation in both countries. Twelve years after the treaty has come into effect questions emerge to what extent NAFTA was able to reduce the migration pressure: are trade and migration substitutes like the policy-makers had assumed or are they complements? Using monthly data from 1966 until 2004 we estimate a distributed lag model with the number of apprehensions at the US-Mexican border as a proxy for illegal migration. The results indicate that increasing trade flows cause larger illegal migration from Mexico to the United States.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0429.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision: Dec 2006
Handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0429

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Related research
Keywords: Migration; International Trade; Distributed Lag Model; Mexico; NAFTA;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
  3. Rivera-Batiz, Francisco L, 1986. "Can Border Industries Be a Substitute for Immigration?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 263-68, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Roberto Coronado & Pia M. Orrenius, 2003. "The impact of illegal immigration and enforcement on border crime rates," Working Papers 03-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  8. Collins, W-J & O'Rourke, K-H & Williamson, J-G, 1997. "Were Trade and Factor Mobility Substitutes in History?," Papers 97/15, College Dublin, Department of Political Economy-.
    Other versions:
  9. George J. Borjas & Eric O'N. Fisher, 2001. "Dollarization and the Mexican labor market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 626-647.
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  10. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Harry P. Bowen & Jennifer Pedussel wu, 2004. "Does IT matter where immigrants work? Traded goods, non-traded goods, and sector specific employment," Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series 2004-14, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School. [Downloadable!]
  12. Gordon H. Hanson, 2006. "Illegal Migration from Mexico to the United States," NBER Working Papers 12141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Markusen, James R., 1983. "Factor movements and commodity trade as complements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 341-356, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. James R. Markusen & Stephen Zahniser, 1997. "Liberalization and Incentives for Labor Migration: Theory with Applications to NAFTA," NBER Working Papers 6232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Kusum Mundra, 2005. "Immigration and International Trade: A Semiparametric Empirical Investigation," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 65-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Mckenzie, David & Rapoport, Hillel, 2007. "Network effects and the dynamics of migration and inequality: Theory and evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-24, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  19. Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J., 1998. "Multinational firms and the new trade theory," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 183-203, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Lopez, Ramon & Schiff, Maurice, 1995. "Migration and the skill composition of the labor force : the impact of trade liberalization in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1493, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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