Financial Crisis and Sticky Expectations
AbstractWe utilize the Kalman filter and instrumental variable methods to estimate consumption growth persistence for the U.S. Results show that prior to the financial crisis, the stickiness parameter beta was around 0.7. However, when the sample is extended until 2009.Q1, the estimates of beta declined to around 0.5. Extending the sample beyond 2009.Q1 show mild increase in beta. Our findings imply that during the crisis consumers' attentiveness to aggregate information has slightly increased, thereby reducing the persistence of aggregate consumption growth.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2013-05.
Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: May 2013
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financial crisis; Kalman filter; sticky expectations;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
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