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The Structural Approach of a Natrex Model on Equilibrium Exchange Rates

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  • Carmen Mar? Mart?ez

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    Abstract

    Following a general macroeconomic approach, this paper sets a closed micro-founded structural model to determine the long run real exchange rate of a developed economy. In particular, the analysis follows the structure of a Natrex model. The main contribution of this research paper is the development of a solid theoretical framework that analyse in depth the basis of the real exchange rate and the details of the equilibrium dynamics after any shock influencing the steady state. In our case, the intertemporal factors derived from the stock-flow relationship will be particularly determinant. The main results of the paper can be summarised as follows. In first place, a complete well-integrated structural model for long-run real exchange rate determination is developed from first principles. Moreover, within the concrete dynamics of the model, it is found that some convergence restrictions will be necessary. On one hand, for the medium run convergence the sensitivity of the trade balance to changes in real exchange rate should be higher that the correspondent one to the investment decisions. On the other hand, and regarding long-run convergence, it is also necessary both that there exists a negative relationship between investment and capital stock accumulation and that the global saving of the economy depends positively on net foreign debt accumulation. In addition, there are also interesting conclusions about the effects that certain shocks over the exogenous variables of the model have on real exchange rates.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC) in its series UFAE and IAE Working Papers with number 588.03.

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    Length: 40
    Date of creation: Jul 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:aub:autbar:588.03

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    Related research

    Keywords: macroeconomic approach; long run real exchange rate; Natrex models; equilibrium dynamics; convergence restrictions; productivity; foreign debt accumulation.;

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    1. Canzoneri, Matthew, et al, 2002. "Productivity Trends in Europe: Implications for Real Exchange Rates, Real Interest Rates, and Inflation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 497-516, August.
    2. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity:Causes and Welfare Costs," Working Papers 0038, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    3. Ronald MacDonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2001. "PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect," IMF Working Papers 01/38, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Kay Strong & Subhash Sharma, 2002. "Cointegration of price measures: Evidence from the G-7," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 111-122, March.
    5. R. Macdonald & L. Ricci, 2003. "PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect: The Role of the DistributionSector," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 81, Netherlands Central Bank.
    6. Detken, Carsten & Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jérôme & Marin, Carmen & Smets, Frank, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 0160, European Central Bank.
    7. Peter B. Clark & Steven A. Symansky & Tamim Bayoumi & Mark P. Taylor, 1994. "Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 94/17, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Karfakis, Costas & Phipps, Anthony, 1999. "Modeling the Australian Dollar-US Dollar Exchange Rate Using Cointegration Techniques," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 265-79, May.
    9. Stein, Jerome L., 1990. "The real exchange rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 1045-1078, November.
    10. Rey, Serge & Varachaud, Pascal, 2002. "European Real Exchange Rates after Bretton Woods: A Re-examination," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 185-221.
    11. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "A Century of Purchasing-Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 8012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Carsten Detken & Alistair Dieppe & Jér�me Henry & Frank Smets & Carmen Marin, 2002. "Determinants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 404-436, December.
    13. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
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    Cited by:
    1. Andrea Saayman, 2007. "The Real Equilibrium South African Rand/US Dollar Exchange Rate: A Comparison of Alternative Measures," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 183-199, May.

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