Forecast Improvements Using A Volatility Index
AbstractThis paper explores the possibility of improved out of sample forecasting for stock returns and foreign exchange rates using observed nonlinearities in the two series. Forecasting is done using nonparametric techniques where important information is obtained from the current level of volatility in the series. For both series forecast improvements are observed, but for stock returns the improvements are only marginal. These results indicate the usefulness and stability of some types of nonlinear modelling for financial markets. Copyright 1992 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems in its series Working papers with number 9105.
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 1991
Date of revision:
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Postal: UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON, SOCIAL SYSTEMS RESEARCH INSTITUTE(S.S.R.I.), MADISON WISCONSIN 53706 U.S.A.
time series ; economic models;
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