IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/math-0702814.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Combining domain knowledge and statistical models in time series analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Tze Leung Lai
  • Samuel Po-Shing Wong

Abstract

This paper describes a new approach to time series modeling that combines subject-matter knowledge of the system dynamics with statistical techniques in time series analysis and regression. Applications to American option pricing and the Canadian lynx data are given to illustrate this approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Tze Leung Lai & Samuel Po-Shing Wong, 2007. "Combining domain knowledge and statistical models in time series analysis," Papers math/0702814, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:math/0702814
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/math/0702814
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Broadie, Mark & Detemple, Jerome & Ghysels, Eric & Torres, Olivier, 2000. "Nonparametric estimation of American options' exercise boundaries and call prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(11-12), pages 1829-1857, October.
    3. Broadie, Mark & Detemple, Jerome, 1996. "American Option Valuation: New Bounds, Approximations, and a Comparison of Existing Methods," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(4), pages 1211-1250.
    4. Ju, Nengjiu, 1998. "Pricing an American Option by Approximating Its Early Exercise Boundary as a Multipiece Exponential Function," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 627-646.
    5. S. D. Jacka, 1991. "Optimal Stopping and the American Put," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 1-14, April.
    6. K. S. Lim, 1987. "A Comparative Study Of Various Univariate Time Series Models For Canadian Lynx Data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 161-176, March.
    7. Peter A. W. Lewis & Bonnie K. Ray, 2002. "Nonlinear modelling of periodic threshold autoregressions using Tsmars," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 459-471, July.
    8. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    10. Peter Carr & Robert Jarrow & Ravi Myneni, 2008. "Alternative Characterizations Of American Put Options," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 5, pages 85-103, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Lai T.L. & Po-Shing Wong S., 2001. "Stochastic Neural Networks With Applications to Nonlinear Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 968-981, September.
    12. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    2. Manuel Moreno & Javier Navas, 2003. "On the Robustness of Least-Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) for Pricing American Derivatives," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 107-128, May.
    3. Minqiang Li, 2010. "A quasi-analytical interpolation method for pricing American options under general multi-dimensional diffusion processes," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 177-217, July.
    4. Zhongkai Liu & Tao Pang, 2016. "An efficient grid lattice algorithm for pricing American-style options," International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 36-55.
    5. Ruas, João Pedro & Dias, José Carlos & Vidal Nunes, João Pedro, 2013. "Pricing and static hedging of American-style options under the jump to default extended CEV model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4059-4072.
    6. Song-Ping Zhu, 2006. "An exact and explicit solution for the valuation of American put options," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 229-242.
    7. Pressacco, Flavio & Gaudenzi, Marcellino & Zanette, Antonino & Ziani, Laura, 2008. "New insights on testing the efficiency of methods of pricing and hedging American options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 235-254, February.
    8. In oon Kim & Bong-Gyu Jang & Kyeong Tae Kim, 2013. "A simple iterative method for the valuation of American options," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 885-895, May.
    9. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni, 2005. "The saga of the American put," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2909-2918, November.
    10. Chung, San-Lin & Hung, Mao-Wei & Wang, Jr-Yan, 2010. "Tight bounds on American option prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 77-89, January.
    11. D. J. Manuge & P. T. Kim, 2014. "A fast Fourier transform method for Mellin-type option pricing," Papers 1403.3756, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2014.
    12. B. Gao J. Huang, "undated". "The Valuation of American Barrier Options Using the Decomposition Technique," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-002, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    13. Aricson Cruz & José Carlos Dias, 2020. "Valuing American-style options under the CEV model: an integral representation based method," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 63-83, April.
    14. Minqiang Li, 2010. "Analytical approximations for the critical stock prices of American options: a performance comparison," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 75-99, April.
    15. Muthuraman, Kumar, 2008. "A moving boundary approach to American option pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3520-3537, November.
    16. Gao, Bin & Huang, Jing-zhi & Subrahmanyam, Marti, 2000. "The valuation of American barrier options using the decomposition technique," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(11-12), pages 1783-1827, October.
    17. Chockalingam, Arun & Muthuraman, Kumar, 2015. "An approximate moving boundary method for American option pricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(2), pages 431-438.
    18. Mark Broadie & Jerome B. Detemple, 2004. "ANNIVERSARY ARTICLE: Option Pricing: Valuation Models and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1145-1177, September.
    19. Antonio Cosma & Stefano Galluccio & Paola Pederzoli & O. Scaillet, 2012. "Valuing American Options Using Fast Recursive Projections," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 12-26, Swiss Finance Institute.
    20. Weiping Li & Su Chen, 2018. "The Early Exercise Premium In American Options By Using Nonparametric Regressions," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(07), pages 1-29, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:math/0702814. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.