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Stochastic Lotka-Volterra Systems of Competing Auto-Catalytic Agents Lead Generically to Truncated Pareto Power Wealth Distribution, Truncated Levy Distribution of Market Returns, Clustered Volatility, Booms and Craches

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  • Sorin Solomon

    (Hebrew University)

Abstract

We give a microscopic representation of the stock-market in which the microscopic agents are the individual traders and their capital. Their basic dynamics consists in the auto-catalysis of the individual capital and in the global competition/cooperation between the agents mediated by the total wealth invested in the stock (which we identify with the stock-index). We show that such systems lead generically to (truncated) Pareto power-law distribution of the individual wealth. This, in turn, leads to intermittent market (short time) returns parametrized by a (truncated) Levy distribution. We relate the truncation in the Levy distribution to the (truncation in the Pareto Power Law i.e. to the) fact that at each moment no trader can own more than the current total wealth invested in the stock. In the cases where the system is dominated by the largest traders, the dynamics looks similar to noisy low-dimensional chaos. By introducing traders memory and/or feedback between individual and collective wealth fluctuations (the later identified with the stock returns), one obtains clustered "volatility" as well as market booms and crashes. The basic feedback loop consists in: - computing the market price of the stock as the sum of the individual wealths invested in the stock by the traders and - determining the time variation of the individual trader wealth as his/her previous wealth multiplied by the stock return (i.e. the variation of the stock price).

Suggested Citation

  • Sorin Solomon, 1998. "Stochastic Lotka-Volterra Systems of Competing Auto-Catalytic Agents Lead Generically to Truncated Pareto Power Wealth Distribution, Truncated Levy Distribution of Market Returns, Clustered Volatility," Papers cond-mat/9803367, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/9803367
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    Cited by:

    1. Chakrabarti, Anindya S., 2016. "Stochastic Lotka–Volterra equations: A model of lagged diffusion of technology in an interconnected world," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 214-223.
    2. Blank, Aharon & Solomon, Sorin, 2000. "Power laws in cities population, financial markets and internet sites (scaling in systems with a variable number of components)," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(1), pages 279-288.
    3. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2021. "Financial Return Distributions: Past, Present, and COVID-19," Papers 2107.06659, arXiv.org.
    4. Düring, Bertram & Toscani, Giuseppe, 2008. "International and domestic trading and wealth distribution," CoFE Discussion Papers 08/02, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    5. Sorin Solomon & Moshe Levy, 2000. "Market Ecology, Pareto Wealth Distribution and Leptokurtic Returns in Microscopic Simulation of the LLS Stock Market Model," Papers cond-mat/0005416, arXiv.org.
    6. Sorin Solomon & Nataša Golo, 2015. "Microeconomic structure determines macroeconomic dynamics: Aoki defeats the representative agent," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(1), pages 5-30, April.
    7. Sheri M. Markose, 2005. "Computability and Evolutionary Complexity: Markets as Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(504), pages 159-192, 06.
    8. Chami Figueira, F. & Moura, N.J. & Ribeiro, M.B., 2011. "The Gompertz–Pareto income distribution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(4), pages 689-698.
    9. Anindya S. Chakrabarti & Arnab Chatterjee & Tushar Nandi & Asim Ghosh & Anirban Chakraborti, 2018. "Quantifying invariant features of within-group inequality in consumption across groups," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(3), pages 469-490, October.
    10. Chakrabarti, Anindya S., 2015. "Stochastic Lotka-Volterra equations: A model of lagged diffusion of technology in an interconnected world," IIMA Working Papers WP2015-08-05, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    11. Maldarella, Dario & Pareschi, Lorenzo, 2012. "Kinetic models for socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(3), pages 715-730.

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