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A Numerical Study on the Evolution of Portfolio Rules: Is CAPM Fit for Nasdaq?

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  • G. Caldarelli

    (INFM and Dip Fisica,"La Sapienza" Rome, Italy)

  • M. Piccioni

    (INFM and Dip Fisica,"La Sapienza" Rome, Italy)

  • E. Sciubba

    (Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

Abstract

In this paper we test computationally the performance of CAPM in an evolutionary setting. In particular we study the stability of wealth distribution in a financial market where some traders invest as prescribed by CAPM and others behave according to different portfolio rules. Our study is motivated by recent analytical results that show that, whenever a logarithmic utility maximiser enters the market, traders who either ``believe'' in CAPM and use it as a rule of thumb for their portfolio decisions, or are endowed with genuine mean-variance preferences, vanish in the long run. Our analysis provides further insights and extends these results. We simulate a sequence of trades in a financial market and: first, we address the issue of how long is the long run in different parametric settings; second, we study the effect of heterogeneous savings behaviour on asymptotic wealth shares. We find that CAPM is particularly ``unfit'' for highly risky environments.

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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number cond-mat/0009437.

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Date of creation: Sep 2000
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Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0009437

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  1. Sciubba, E., 1999. "The Evolution of Portfolio Rules and the Capital Asset Pricing Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9909, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
  3. Hakansson, Nils H, 1971. "Multi-Period Mean-Variance Analysis: Toward A General Theory of Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 857-84, September.
  4. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " The CAPM Is Wanted, Dead or Alive," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1947-58, December.
  5. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
  6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
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