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Subgeometrically ergodic autoregressions

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  • Mika Meitz
  • Pentti Saikkonen

Abstract

In this paper we discuss how the notion of subgeometric ergodicity in Markov chain theory can be exploited to study stationarity and ergodicity of nonlinear time series models. Subgeometric ergodicity means that the transition probability measures converge to the stationary measure at a rate slower than geometric. Specifically, we consider suitably defined higher-order nonlinear autoregressions that behave similarly to a unit root process for large values of the observed series but we place almost no restrictions on their dynamics for moderate values of the observed series. Results on the subgeometric ergodicity of nonlinear autoregressions have previously appeared only in the first-order case. We provide an extension to the higher-order case and show that the autoregressions we consider are, under appropriate conditions, subgeometrically ergodic. As useful implications we also obtain stationarity and $\beta$-mixing with subgeometrically decaying mixing coefficients.

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  • Mika Meitz & Pentti Saikkonen, 2019. "Subgeometrically ergodic autoregressions," Papers 1904.07089, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1904.07089
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    1. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Rahbek, Anders & Tjøstheim, Dag, 2009. "Poisson Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(488), pages 1430-1439.
    2. Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2008. "Ergodicity, Mixing, And Existence Of Moments Of A Class Of Markov Models With Applications To Garch And Acd Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1291-1320, October.
    3. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    4. Gourieroux, Christian & Robert, Christian Y., 2006. "Stochastic Unit Root Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 1052-1090, December.
    5. Frédérique Bec & Anders Rahbek & Neil Shephard, 2008. "The ACR Model: A Multivariate Dynamic Mixture Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(5), pages 583-618, October.
    6. Nummelin, Esa & Tuominen, Pekka, 1983. "The rate of convergence in Orey's theorem for Harris recurrent Markov chains with applications to renewal theory," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 295-311, August.
    7. Fort, G. & Moulines, E., 2003. "Polynomial ergodicity of Markov transition kernels," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 57-99, January.
    8. Cline, Daren B. H. & Pu, Huay-min H., 1998. "Verifying irreducibility and continuity of a nonlinear time series," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 139-148, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mika Meitz & Pentti Saikkonen, 2022. "Subgeometrically ergodic autoregressions with autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Papers 2205.11953, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.

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