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Viability and Arbitrage under Knightian Uncertainty

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  • Matteo Burzoni
  • Frank Riedel
  • H. Mete Soner

Abstract

We reconsider the microeconomic foundations of financial economics. Motivated by the importance of Knightian Uncertainty in markets, we present a model that does not carry any probabilistic structure ex ante, yet is based on a common order. We derive the fundamental equivalence of economic viability of asset prices and absence of arbitrage. We also obtain a modified version of the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing using the notion of sublinear pricing measures. Different versions of the Efficient Market Hypothesis are related to the assumptions one is willing to impose on the common order.

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  • Matteo Burzoni & Frank Riedel & H. Mete Soner, 2017. "Viability and Arbitrage under Knightian Uncertainty," Papers 1707.03335, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1707.03335
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Julian Holzermann, 2018. "The Hull-White Model under Volatility Uncertainty," Papers 1808.03463, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    3. Gianluca Cassese, 2021. "Complete and competitive financial markets in a complex world," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 659-688, October.
    4. Tolulope Fadina & Thorsten Schmidt, 2019. "Default Ambiguity," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-17, June.
    5. Luca Galimberti & Anastasis Kratsios & Giulia Livieri, 2022. "Designing Universal Causal Deep Learning Models: The Case of Infinite-Dimensional Dynamical Systems from Stochastic Analysis," Papers 2210.13300, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    6. Matteo Burzoni & Mario Sikic, 2018. "Robust martingale selection problem and its connections to the no-arbitrage theory," Papers 1801.03574, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2018.
    7. Hölzermann, Julian, 2018. "Bond Pricing under Knightian Uncertainty. A Short Rate Model with Drift and Volatility Uncertainty," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 582, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    8. Henry Chiu & Rama Cont, 2023. "A model‐free approach to continuous‐time finance," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 257-273, April.
    9. Max Nendel & Jan Streicher, 2023. "An axiomatic approach to default risk and model uncertainty in rating systems," Papers 2303.08217, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    10. Julian Holzermann, 2019. "Term Structure Modeling under Volatility Uncertainty," Papers 1904.02930, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    11. Tongseok Lim, 2023. "Replication of financial derivatives under extreme market models given marginals," Papers 2307.00807, arXiv.org.
    12. Lorenzo Bastianello & Alain Chateauneuf & Bernard Cornet, 2022. "Put-Call Parities, absence of arbitrage opportunities and non-linear pricing rules," Papers 2203.16292, arXiv.org.
    13. Ariel Neufeld & Antonis Papapantoleon & Qikun Xiang, 2020. "Model-free bounds for multi-asset options using option-implied information and their exact computation," Papers 2006.14288, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    14. Hölzermann, Julian & Lin, Qian, 2019. "Term Structure Modeling under Volatility Uncertainty: A Forward Rate Model driven by G-Brownian Motion," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 613, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    15. Ariel Neufeld & Antonis Papapantoleon & Qikun Xiang, 2023. "Model-Free Bounds for Multi-Asset Options Using Option-Implied Information and Their Exact Computation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(4), pages 2051-2068, April.
    16. Jan Obłój & Johannes Wiesel, 2021. "A unified framework for robust modelling of financial markets in discrete time," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 427-468, July.

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