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Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion

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Listed:
  • B. Podobnik
  • D. Horvatic
  • M. Bertella
  • L. Feng
  • X. Huang
  • B. Li

Abstract

Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erd\H{o}s Renyi network models where each node, representing bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure---systemic risk---quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided on sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either (i) assets or (ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure $p$ and threshold $T_h$ ("solvency" parameter). The systemic risk non-linearly increases with $p$ and decreases with average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller $T_h$), the smaller the systemic risk---for some $T_h$ values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic (ii) controlled by probability $p_2$---a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochastic---the systemic risk decreases with decreasing $p_2$. We analyse asset allocation for the U.S. banks.

Suggested Citation

  • B. Podobnik & D. Horvatic & M. Bertella & L. Feng & X. Huang & B. Li, 2014. "Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion," Papers 1403.5623, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1403.5623
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Chao & Liu, Xiaoxing & He, Jianmin, 2022. "Does diversification promote systemic risk?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    2. Ma, Jing & He, Jianmin & Liu, Xiaoxing & Wang, Chao, 2019. "Diversification and systemic risk in the banking system," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 413-421.
    3. Joung-Hun Lee & Marko Jusup & Boris Podobnik & Yoh Iwasa, 2015. "Agent-Based Mapping of Credit Risk for Sustainable Microfinance," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-16, May.

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