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Modelling systemic price cojumps with Hawkes factor models

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  • Giacomo Bormetti
  • Lucio Maria Calcagnile
  • Michele Treccani
  • Fulvio Corsi
  • Stefano Marmi
  • Fabrizio Lillo
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    Abstract

    Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of systemic events. By investigating a set of 20 high cap stocks traded at the Italian Stock Exchange, we find that there is a large number of high frequency cojumps. We show that the dynamics of these jumps is described neither by a multivariate Poisson nor by a multivariate Hawkes model. We introduce a Hawkes one factor model which is able to capture simultaneously the time clustering of jumps and the high synchronization of jumps across assets.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1301.6141
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1301.6141.

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    Date of creation: Jan 2013
    Date of revision: Mar 2013
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1301.6141

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    Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    1. Corsi, Fulvio & Pirino, Davide & Renò, Roberto, 2010. "Threshold bipower variation and the impact of jumps on volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(2), pages 276-288, December.
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    6. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Julio Cacho-Diaz & Roger J.A. Laeven, 2010. "Modeling Financial Contagion Using Mutually Exciting Jump Processes," NBER Working Papers 15850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jiang, George J. & Oomen, Roel C.A., 2008. "Testing for jumps when asset prices are observed with noise-a "swap variance" approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 352-370, June.
    8. Toke, Ioane Muni & Pomponio, Fabrizio, 2012. "Modelling trades-through in a limit order book using hawkes processes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 6(22), pages 1-23.
    9. Mardi Dungey & Michael McKenzie & Vanessa Smith, 2007. "Empirical Evidence On Jumps In The Term Structure Of The Us Treasury Market," CAMA Working Papers 2007-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Ioane Muni Toke & Fabrizio Pomponio, 2012. "Modelling Trades-Through in a Limit Order Book Using Hawkes Processes," Post-Print hal-00745554, HAL.
    11. Das, Sanjiv Ranjan & Uppal, Raman, 2002. "Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 3305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Armand Joulin & Augustin Lefevre & Daniel Grunberg & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2008. "Stock price jumps: news and volume play a minor role," Papers 0803.1769, arXiv.org.
    13. Dungey, Mardi & Hvozdyk, Lyudmyla, 2012. "Cojumping: Evidence from the US Treasury bond and futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1563-1575.
    14. Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2011. "Jumps, cojumps and macro announcements," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 893-921, 09.
    15. E. Bacry & S. Delattre & M. Hoffmann & J. F. Muzy, 2011. "Modeling microstructure noise with mutually exciting point processes," Papers 1101.3422, arXiv.org.
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