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Designing Informative Securities

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  • Yiling Chen
  • Mike Ruberry
  • Jennifer Wortman Vaughan

Abstract

We create a formal framework for the design of informative securities in prediction markets. These securities allow a market organizer to infer the likelihood of events of interest as well as if he knew all of the traders' private signals. We consider the design of markets that are always informative, markets that are informative for a particular signal structure of the participants, and informative markets constructed from a restricted selection of securities. We find that to achieve informativeness, it can be necessary to allow participants to express information that may not be directly of interest to the market organizer, and that understanding the participants' signal structure is important for designing informative prediction markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Yiling Chen & Mike Ruberry & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2012. "Designing Informative Securities," Papers 1210.4837, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1210.4837
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Rajiv Sethi & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2016. "Belief Aggregation with Automated Market Makers," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 155-178, June.

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