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Tobit Bayesian Model Averaging and the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment

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  • Alexander Jordan
  • Alex Lenkoski
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    Abstract

    We develop a fully Bayesian, computationally efficient framework for incorporating model uncertainty into Type II Tobit models and apply this to the investigation of the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). While direct evaluation of modelprobabilities is intractable in this setting, we show that by using conditional Bayes Factors, which nest model moves inside a Gibbs sampler, we are able to incorporate model uncertainty in a straight-forward fashion. We conclude with a study of global FDI flows between 1988-2000.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1205.2501
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1205.2501.

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    Date of creation: May 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1205.2501

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    Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    1. James R. Markusen, 1997. "Trade versus Investment Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 6231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bruce Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 383-403, December.
    3. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Hui Tong, 2005. "Bilateral FDI Flows: Threshold Barriers and Productivity Shocks," NBER Working Papers 11639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
    5. Yasuhiro Omori, 2007. "Efficient Gibbs Sampler for Bayesian Analysis of a Sample Selection Model," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-481, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    6. Markusen, James R., 1984. "Multinationals, multi-plant economies, and the gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 205-226, May.
    7. Christian Henn & Theo S. Eicher, 2009. "One Money, One Market - A Revised Benchmark," IMF Working Papers 09/186, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2007. "A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 278-308, November.
    9. McCulloch, Robert E. & Polson, Nicholas G. & Rossi, Peter E., 2000. "A Bayesian analysis of the multinomial probit model with fully identified parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 173-193, November.
    10. Bruce A. Blonigen & Ronald B. Davies & Glen R. Waddell & Helen T. Naughton, 2004. "FDI in Space: Spatial Autoregressive Relationships in Foreign Direct Investment," NBER Working Papers 10939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Bruce A. Blonigen & Ronald B. Davies, 2004. "The Effects of Bilateral Tax Treaties on U.S. FDI Activity," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 11(5), pages 601-622, 09.
    12. John H Dunning, 1980. "Towards an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Tests," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 9-31, March.
    13. Chib, Siddhartha, 2007. "Analysis of treatment response data without the joint distribution of potential outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 401-412, October.
    14. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations," Scholarly Articles 3445092, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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