Building portfolios of stocks in the S\~ao Paulo Stock Exchange using Random Matrix Theory
AbstractBy using Random Matrix Theory, we build covariance matrices between stocks of the BM&F-Bovespa (Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias e Futuros de S\~ao Paulo) which are cleaned of some of the noise due to the complex interactions between the many stocks and the finiteness of available data. We also use a regression model in order to remove the market effect due to the common movement of all stocks. These two procedures are then used to build stock portfolios based on Markowitz's theory, trying to obtain better predictions of future risk based on past data. This is done for years of both low and high volatility of the Brazilian stock market, from 2004 to 2010. The results show that the use of regression to subtract the market effect on returns greatly increases the accuracy of the prediction of risk, and that, although the cleaning of the correlation matrix often leads to portfolios that better predict risks, in periods of high volatility of the market this procedure may fail to do so.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1201.0625.
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision: Mar 2013
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://arxiv.org/
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Szilard Pafka & Imre Kondor, 2002. "Noisy Covariance Matrices and Portfolio Optimization II," Papers cond-mat/0205119, arXiv.org, revised May 2002.
- Sharifi, S. & Crane, M. & Shamaie, A. & Ruskin, H., 2004. "Random matrix theory for portfolio optimization: a stability approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 335(3), pages 629-643.
- Vincenzo Tola & Fabrizio Lillo & Mauro Gallegati & Rosario N. Mantegna, 2005.
"Cluster analysis for portfolio optimization,"
- Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Francisco J. Nogales & Raman Uppal, 2009. "A Generalized Approach to Portfolio Optimization: Improving Performance by Constraining Portfolio Norms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 798-812, May.
- Frankfurter, George M. & Phillips, Herbert E. & Seagle, John P., 1972. "Estimation Risk in the Portfolio Selection Model: A Comment," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1423-1424, January.
- Dickinson, J. P., 1974. "The Reliability of Estimation Procedures in Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 447-462, June.
- Ester Pantaleo & Michele Tumminello & Fabrizio Lillo & Rosario N. Mantegna, 2010.
"When do improved covariance matrix estimators enhance portfolio optimization? An empirical comparative study of nine estimators,"
- Ester Pantaleo & Michele Tumminello & Fabrizio Lillo & Rosario Mantegna, 2011. "When do improved covariance matrix estimators enhance portfolio optimization? An empirical comparative study of nine estimators," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 1067-1080.
- Jorion, Philippe, 1986. "Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 279-292, September.
- Dalibor Eterovic & Nicolas Eterovic, 2012. "Separating the Wheat from the Chaff: Understanding Portfolio Returns in an Emerging Market," Working Papers wp_025, Adolfo Ibáñez University, School of Government.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.