Memory effects in stock price dynamics: evidences of technical trading
AbstractTechnical trading represents a class of investment strategies for Financial Markets based on the analysis of trends and recurrent patterns of price time series. According standard economical theories these strategies should not be used because they cannot be profitable. On the contrary it is well-known that technical traders exist and operate on different time scales. In this paper we investigate if technical trading produces detectable signals in price time series and if some kind of memory effect is introduced in the price dynamics. In particular we focus on a specific figure called supports and resistances. We first develop a criterion to detect the potential values of supports and resistances. As a second step, we show that memory effects in the price dynamics are associated to these selected values. In fact we show that prices more likely re-bounce than cross these values. Such an effect is a quantitative evidence of the so-called self-fulfilling prophecy that is the self-reinforcement of agents' belief and sentiment about future stock prices' behavior.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1110.5197.
Date of creation: Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://arxiv.org/
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-11-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2011-11-01 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-MST-2011-11-01 (Market Microstructure)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & J. Doyne Farmer & Fabrizio Lillo, 2008. "How markets slowly digest changes in supply and demand," Papers 0809.0822, arXiv.org.
- Fabrizio Lillo & J. Doyne Farmer, 2003.
"The long memory of the efficient market,"
cond-mat/0311053, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2004.
- J. Doyne Farmer & Laszlo Gillemot & Fabrizio Lillo & Szabolcs Mike & Anindya Sen, 2004.
"What really causes large price changes?,"
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 383-397.
- Potters, Marc & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2003. "More statistical properties of order books and price impact," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 133-140.
- G. Caldarelli & M. Marsili & Y. -C. Zhang, 1997. "A Prototype Model of Stock Exchange," Papers cond-mat/9709118, arXiv.org.
- Matthieu Wyart & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren & Marc Potters & Michele Vettorazzo, 2008. "Relation between bid-ask spread, impact and volatility in order-driven markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 41-57.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Mezard & Marc Potters, 2002. "Statistical properties of stock order books: empirical results and models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 251-256.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Mezard & Marc Potters, 2002. "Statistical properties of stock order books: empirical results and models," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0203511, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- Ilaria Bordino & Stefano Battiston & Guido Caldarelli & Matthieu Cristelli & Antti Ukkonen & Ingmar Weber, 2011. "Web search queries can predict stock market volumes," Papers 1110.4784, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2012.
- Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Scaling and Criticality in a Stochastic Multi-Agent Model of a Financial Market," Discussion Paper Serie B 438, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
- Marc Potters & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2002. "More statistical properties of order books and price impact," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0210710, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.