IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1103.0893.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Record statistics for biased random walks, with an application to financial data

Author

Listed:
  • Gregor Wergen
  • Miro Bogner
  • Joachim Krug

Abstract

We consider the occurrence of record-breaking events in random walks with asymmetric jump distributions. The statistics of records in symmetric random walks was previously analyzed by Majumdar and Ziff and is well understood. Unlike the case of symmetric jump distributions, in the asymmetric case the statistics of records depends on the choice of the jump distribution. We compute the record rate $P_n(c)$, defined as the probability for the $n$th value to be larger than all previous values, for a Gaussian jump distribution with standard deviation $\sigma$ that is shifted by a constant drift $c$. For small drift, in the sense of $c/\sigma \ll n^{-1/2}$, the correction to $P_n(c)$ grows proportional to arctan$(\sqrt{n})$ and saturates at the value $\frac{c}{\sqrt{2} \sigma}$. For large $n$ the record rate approaches a constant, which is approximately given by $1-(\sigma/\sqrt{2\pi}c)\textrm{exp}(-c^2/2\sigma^2)$ for $c/\sigma \gg 1$. These asymptotic results carry over to other continuous jump distributions with finite variance. As an application, we compare our analytical results to the record statistics of 366 daily stock prices from the Standard & Poors 500 index. The biased random walk accounts quantitatively for the increase in the number of upper records due to the overall trend in the stock prices, and after detrending the number of upper records is in good agreement with the symmetric random walk. However the number of lower records in the detrended data is significantly reduced by a mechanism that remains to be identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregor Wergen & Miro Bogner & Joachim Krug, 2011. "Record statistics for biased random walks, with an application to financial data," Papers 1103.0893, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1103.0893
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1103.0893
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Min, Seungsik & Shin, Ki-Hong & Baek, Woonhak & Kim, Kyungsik & You, Cheol-Hwan & Lee, Dong-In & Yum, Seong Soo & Kim, Wonheung & Chang, Ki-Ho, 2020. "Dynamical behavior of combined detrended cross-correlation analysis methods in random walks and Lévy flights," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    2. Wergen, Gregor, 2014. "Modeling record-breaking stock prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 396(C), pages 114-133.
    3. Claude Godreche & Satya N. Majumdar & Gregory Schehr, 2015. "Record statistics for random walk bridges," Papers 1505.06053, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    4. Claude Godreche & Satya N. Majumdar & Gregory Schehr, 2017. "Record statistics of a strongly correlated time series: random walks and L\'evy flights," Papers 1702.00586, arXiv.org.
    5. Srivastava, Shashi C.L. & Lakshminarayan, Arul, 2015. "Records in the classical and quantum standard map," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 67-78.
    6. Gregory Schehr & Satya N. Majumdar, 2013. "Exact record and order statistics of random walks via first-passage ideas," Papers 1305.0639, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1103.0893. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.