Bayesian Model Choice of Grouped t-copula
AbstractOne of the most popular copulas for modeling dependence structures is t-copula. Recently the grouped t-copula was generalized to allow each group to have one member only, so that a priori grouping is not required and the dependence modeling is more flexible. This paper describes a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method under the Bayesian inference framework for estimating and choosing t-copula models. Using historical data of foreign exchange (FX) rates as a case study, we found that Bayesian model choice criteria overwhelmingly favor the generalized t-copula. In addition, all the criteria also agree on the second most likely model and these inferences are all consistent with classical likelihood ratio tests. Finally, we demonstrate the impact of model choice on the conditional Value-at-Risk for portfolios of six major FX rates.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1103.0606.
Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Publication status: Published in Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability. 14(4) 1097-1119
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Web page: http://arxiv.org/
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-03-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2011-03-12 (Econometrics)
- NEP-RMG-2011-03-12 (Risk Management)
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