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Are volatility estimators robust with respect to modeling assumptions?

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  • Yingying Li
  • Per A. Mykland
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    Abstract

    We consider microstructure as an arbitrary contamination of the underlying latent securities price, through a Markov kernel $Q$. Special cases include additive error, rounding and combinations thereof. Our main result is that, subject to smoothness conditions, the two scales realized volatility is robust to the form of contamination $Q$. To push the limits of our result, we show what happens for some models that involve rounding (which is not, of course, smooth) and see in this situation how the robustness deteriorates with decreasing smoothness. Our conclusion is that under reasonable smoothness, one does not need to consider too closely how the microstructure is formed, while if severe non-smoothness is suspected, one needs to pay attention to the precise structure and also the use to which the estimator of volatility will be put.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0709.0440
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 0709.0440.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2007
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    Publication status: Published in Bernoulli 2007, Vol. 13, No. 3, 601-622
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0709.0440

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    Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    1. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2000. "Econometric analysis of realised volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Economics Papers 2001-W4, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 05 Jul 2001.
    2. Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 2005. "How Often to Sample a Continuous-Time Process in the Presence of Market Microstructure Noise," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 351-416.
    3. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    4. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 127-161, April.
    5. Jeremy Large, 2007. "Estimating Quadratic Variation When Quoted Prices Change by a Constant Increment," Economics Series Working Papers 340, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:
    1. Xiu, Dacheng, 2010. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of volatility with high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 235-250, November.
    2. Jie Xiong & Yong Zeng, 2011. "A branching particle approximation to a filtering micromovement model of asset price," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 111-140, May.
    3. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Jacod, Jean & Li, Jia, 2012. "Testing for jumps in noisy high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 207-222.
    4. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Per A. Mykland & Lan Zhang, 2005. "Ultra High Frequency Volatility Estimation with Dependent Microstructure Noise," NBER Working Papers 11380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jianqing Fan & Yingying Li & Ke Yu, 2012. "Vast Volatility Matrix Estimation Using High-Frequency Data for Portfolio Selection," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(497), pages 412-428, March.
    6. Li, Yingying & Zhang, Zhiyuan & Zheng, Xinghua, 2013. "Volatility inference in the presence of both endogenous time and microstructure noise," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(7), pages 2696-2727.
    7. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Jianqing Fan & Yingying Li, 2011. "The Leverage Effect Puzzle: Disentangling Sources of Bias at High Frequency," NBER Working Papers 17592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Yacine A�t-Sahalia & Jean Jacod, 2012. "Analyzing the Spectrum of Asset Returns: Jump and Volatility Components in High Frequency Data," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1007-50, December.
    9. Jacod, Jean & Li, Yingying & Mykland, Per A. & Podolskij, Mark & Vetter, Mathias, 2009. "Microstructure noise in the continuous case: The pre-averaging approach," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(7), pages 2249-2276, July.
    10. Jean Jacod & Yingying Li & Per A. Mykland & Mark Podolskij & Mathias Vetter, 2007. "Microstructure Noise in the Continuous Case: The Pre-Averaging Approach - JLMPV-9," CREATES Research Papers 2007-43, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    11. Jean Jacod & Mark Podolskij & Mathias Vetter, 2008. "Intertemporal Asset Allocation with Habit Formation in Preferences: An Approximate Analytical Solution," CREATES Research Papers 2008-61, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    12. Xinghua Zheng & Yingying Li, 2010. "On the estimation of integrated covariance matrices of high dimensional diffusion processes," Papers 1005.1862, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2012.

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