The future trajectory of US CO2 emissions : the role of state vs. aggregate information
AbstractThis paper provides comparisons of a variety of time series methods for short run forecasts of the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, for the United States, using a recently released state level data set from 1960-2001. We test the out-of-sample performance of univariate and multivariate forecasting models by aggregating state level forecasts versus forecasting the aggregate directly. We find evidence that forecasting the disaggregate series and accounting for spatial effects drastically improves forecasting performance under Root Mean Squared Forecast Error Loss. Based on the in-sample observations we attempt to explain the emergence of voluntary efforts by states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We find evidence that states with decreasing per capita emissions and a "greener" median voter are more likely to push towards voluntary cutbacks in emissions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy in its series CUDARE Working Paper Series with number 1015.
Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
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Postal: University of California, Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics Library, 248 Giannini Hall #3310, Berkeley CA 94720-3310
Other versions of this item:
- Auffhammer, Maximilian & Steinhauser, Ralf, 2006. "The Future Trajectory of US CO2 Emissions: The Role of State vs. Aggregate Information," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt4878j5w0, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
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