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The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss

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  • Auffhammer, Maximilian

    ()
    (University of California, Berkeley. Dept of agricultural and resource economics and policy)

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy in its series CUDARE Working Paper Series with number 1009.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:are:cudare:1009

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Keywords: consumption; energy forecasting;

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References

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  1. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  2. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Christopher Yang & Stephen Schneider, 1998. "Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios: Sensitivity to Social and Technological Factors in Three Regions," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 373-404, December.
  4. Sands, Ronald D., 2004. "Dynamics of carbon abatement in the Second Generation Model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 721-738, July.
  5. O'Neill, Brian C. & Desai, Mausami, 2005. "Accuracy of past projections of US energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 979-993, May.
  6. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann & Ivana Komunjer, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 1107-1125.
  7. Shlyakhter, Alexander I. & Kammen, Daniel M. & Broido, Claire L. & Wilson, Richard, 1994. "Quantifying the credibility of energy projections from trends in past data : The US energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 119-130, February.
  8. Andy S. Kydes, 1999. "Energy Intensity and Carbon Emission Responses to Technological Change: The U.S. Outlook," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 93-121.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph R�lke & Georg Stadtmann, 2013. "Oil price forecasting under asymmetric loss," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2371-2379, June.
  2. Gholam Hossein Hasantash & Hamidreza Mostafaei & Shaghayegh Kordnoori, 2012. "Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 312-319.
  3. Wilkerson, Jordan T. & Cullenward, Danny & Davidian, Danielle & Weyant, John P., 2013. "End use technology choice in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS): An analysis of the residential and commercial building sectors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 773-784.
  4. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "On the loss function of the Bank of Canada: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 155-159.
  5. Fischer, Carolyn & Herrnstadt, Evan & Morgenstern, Richard, 2009. "Understanding errors in EIA projections of energy demand," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 198-209, August.
  6. Andrea Bastianin & Matteo Manera & Anil Markandya & Elisa Scarpa, 2011. "Oil Price Forecast Evaluation with Flexible Loss Functions," Working Papers 2011.91, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  7. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan C Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "Forecasting the Dollar/British Pound Exchange Rate: Asymmetric Loss and Forecast Rationality," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages A213.
  8. Christoph Jeßberger, 2011. "Multilateral Environmental Agreements up to 2050: Are They Sustainable Enough?," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 98, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  9. Mamatzakis, E. & Koutsomanoli-Filippaki, A., 2014. "Testing the rationality of DOE's energy price forecasts under asymmetric loss preferences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 567-575.

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