The impact of global warming on U.S. agriculture: an econometric analysis of optimal growing conditions
AbstractWe link farmland values to climatic, soil, and socioeconomic variables for counties east of the 100th meridian, the historic boundary of agriculture not primarily dependent on irrigation. Degree days, a non-linear transformation of the climatic variables suggested by agronomic experiments as more relevant to crop yield gives an improved fit and increased robustness. Estimated coefficients are consistent with the experimental results. The model is employed to estimate the potential impacts on farmland values for a range of recent warming scenarios. The predictions are very robust and more than 75% of the counties in our sample show a statistically significant effect, ranging from moderate gains to large losses, with losses in the aggregate that can become quite large under scenarios involving sustained heavy use of fossil fuels.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy in its series CUDARE Working Paper Series with number 1003.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Postal: University of California, Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics Library, 248 Giannini Hall #3310, Berkeley CA 94720-3310
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
- Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
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- John Horowitz, 2009. "The Income–Temperature Relationship in a Cross-Section of Countries and its Implications for Predicting the Effects of Global Warming," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(4), pages 475-493, December.
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