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Stationarity of Global Per Capital Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Implications for Global Warming Scenarios

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  • Mark C. Strazicich
  • Ross McKitrick

Abstract

Annual global CO2 emission forecasts at 2100 span 10 to 40 billion tonnes. Modeling work over the past decade has not narrowed this range nor provided much guidance about probabilities. We examine the time-series properties of historical per capita CO2 emissions and conclude that per capita global emissions are stationary without trend, and have a constant mean of 1.14 tonnes per person with standard deviation of 0.02. With estimates of 21st century peak population levels in the 8-10 billion range, this implies that most emissions scenarios currently used for global warming forecasts are unrealistically high.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Appalachian State University in its series Working Papers with number 05-03.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:apl:wpaper:05-03

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Web page: http://www.business.appstate.edu/departments/economics/
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Cited by:
  1. Bjart Holtsmark, 2005. "Global per capita CO2 emissions - stable in the long run?," Discussion Papers 438, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  2. Mariam Camarero & Yurena Mendoza & Javier Ordóñez, 2011. "Re-examining CO2 emissions. Is the assessment of convergence meaningless?," Working Papers 2011/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  3. Ross McKitrick, 2007. "Why did US air pollution decline after 1970?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 491-513, November.
  4. Joakim Westerlund & Syed Basher, 2008. "Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Using a Century of Panel Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 109-120, May.
  5. Carlos Ordás Criado & Jean-Marie Grether, 2010. "Convergence in per capita CO2 emissions: a robust distributional approach," CEPE Working paper series 10-70, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
  6. Chang, Chun-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2008. "Are per capita carbon dioxide emissions converging among industrialized countries? New time series evidence with structural breaks," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(04), pages 497-515, August.

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