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Environmental Risk and Averting Behavior: Predictive Validity of Revealed and Stated Preference Data

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  • John C. Whitehead

Abstract

We conduct predictive validity tests using revealed and stated behavior data from a panel survey of North Carolina coastal households. The application is to hurricane evacuation behavior. Data was initially collected after Hurricane Bonnie led to hurricane evacuations in North Carolina in 1998. Respondents were asked for their behavioral intentions if a hurricane threatened the North Carolina coast during the 1999 hurricane season. Following Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd in 1999, a follow-up survey was conducted to see if respondents behaved as they intended. A jointly estimated revealed and stated behavior model indicates that the hypothetical and real evacuation behavior is based on the same choice process. Using predictions from this model with a hypothetical bias correction we find that it predicts actual evacuation behavior with small forecast error. These results suggest that stated behavior data has some degree of predictive validity.

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File URL: http://econ.appstate.edu/RePEc/pdf/wp0413.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Appalachian State University in its series Working Papers with number 04-13.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:apl:wpaper:04-13

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Postal: Thelma C. Raley Hall, Boone, North Carolina 28608
Phone: 828-262-2148
Fax: 828-262-6105
Web page: http://www.business.appstate.edu/departments/economics/
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  1. John C. Whitehead & Bob Edwards & Marieke Van Willigen & John R. Maiolo & Kenneth Wilson & Kevin T. Smith, 2000. "“Heading for Higher Ground: Factors Affecting Real and Hypothetical Hurricane Evacuation Behavior,”," Working Papers 0006, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
  2. John List & Craig Gallet, 2001. "What Experimental Protocol Influence Disparities Between Actual and Hypothetical Stated Values?," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 20(3), pages 241-254, November.
  3. W. Douglass Shaw, 2002. "Testing the Validity of Contingent Behavior Trip Responses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 401-414.
  4. Haener, Michel K. & Boxall, Peter C. & Adamowicz, Wiktor L., 2000. "Modeling Recreation Site Choice: Do Hypothetical Choices Reflect Actual Behavior?," Staff Paper Series 24124, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
  5. John C. Whitehead, 2000. "“One Million Dollars a Mile? The Opportunity Costs of Hurricane Evacuation,”," Working Papers 0005, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
  6. W. Michael Hanemann, 1994. "Valuing the Environment through Contingent Valuation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 19-43, Fall.
  7. Peter A. Diamond & Jerry A. Hausman, 1994. "Contingent Valuation: Is Some Number Better than No Number?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 45-64, Fall.
  8. Nick Hanley & David Bell & Begona Alvarez-Farizo, 2003. "Valuing the Benefits of Coastal Water Quality Improvements Using Contingent and Real Behaviour," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 24(3), pages 273-285, March.
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Cited by:
  1. John C. Whitehead & Subhrendu K. Pattanayak & George L. Van Houtven & Brett R. Gelso, 2005. "Combining Revealed and Stated Preference Data to Estimate the Nonmarket Value of Ecological Services: An Assessment of the State of the Science," Working Papers 05-19, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, revised 2007.

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